Monday miscellany: Liberal preselection and NSW redistribution latest (open thread)

Dissension in the ranks among Tasmania’s federal Liberals, plus developments in Bennelong and North Sydney.

Essential Research’s fortnightly poll is due this week, although that will be less interesting than it was if it’s decided to stop publishing voting intention numbers, as was the case with last fortnight’s poll. RedBridge Group has also been in the field, with results potentially to be published this week. Other than that:

Nine Newspapers reports Gavin Pearce, Liberal member for Braddon in north-western Tasmania, is withholding his preselection nomination until his electoral neighbour, Bass MP Bridget Archer, is expelled from the party. Archer crossed the floor last week to vote against Peter Dutton’s motion for a royal commission into child sex abuse in Indigenous communities, which the hitherto indulgent Dutton described as a “mistake”. The report says four other conservative MPs are backing Pearce’s course, with one saying there was “a chance party officials would side with him”, while acknowledging this would likely mean Archer retaining her seat as an independent.

Linda Silmalis of the Daily Telegraph reports that Scott Yung, who came within 69 votes of defeating Chris Minns in Kogarah amid a backlash against state Labor among the Chinese community at the 2019 state election (UPDATE: It is noted in comments that Yung merely came within 69 votes of Minns on the primary vote, and that the final two-party margin was actually 1.8%)), is set to become the Liberal candidate for Bennelong after the withdrawal of rival nominee Craig Chung. Silmalis reports Yung had the backing of Peter Dutton, whereas Chung was favoured by moderates. Jerome Laxale gained the seat for Labor in 2022, the party’s second ever win in the seat after Maxine McKew’s famous victory over John Howard in 2007.

• Next door in North Sydney, which Trent Zimmerman lost to teal independent Kylea Tink at last year’s election, the Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column reports that Sophie Lambert, media manager at the NSW Education Department, has nominated for Liberal preselection. Lambert’s preselection brochure says the seat was “stolen at the last election by a concerning new wave of politics”, and shows her pictured alongside conservative favourite Katherine Deves. The matter could be complicated by the current redistribution process, in which the seat could be radically redrawn or potentially abolished.

• Further to the above, responses to the call for public suggestions for the redistribution of New South Wales seats will be published on the Australian Electoral Commission site today, presumably to include the wish lists of the major parties and other interested actors.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

427 comments on “Monday miscellany: Liberal preselection and NSW redistribution latest (open thread)”

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  1. Socrates @ #398 Tuesday, October 31st, 2023 – 9:47 pm

    Watt Tyler

    I can hardly imagine the visual horror of more wind turbines. Give me the beauty of open cut mining.

    Cat

    And cows happily graze under wind turbines.

    Exactly. So what’s the problem?

    I know what the problem is. The Coalition are out of power. That’s what they see as the problem. All else is astroturf and shenanigans. It’s quite obvious that this is just the MDB campaign (another Barnaby Joyce production), all over again. Except, this time with high voltage power lines through the country and mother and baby freaking whales in the sea! Anything to put a spoke in the wheels of the ALP government and their policies.

  2. Asha @ #402 Tuesday, October 31st, 2023 – 9:52 pm

    Is there a lot of prime agricultural land in the ocean?

    Solar Farms, Asha. They’re what the fossil fuel industry is complaining about now. On land. Apparently solar farms have morphed and are taking over our prime agricultural land.

    Not that it ever stopped a coal mine expansion in the past.

  3. michael @ #397 Tuesday, October 31st, 2023 – 9:47 pm

    I agree Cat what you are saying may be very true. But why does offshore wind farms get a free- pass from Albo and Bowen and bugger the consequences.
    There is so much wind and solar which is going to be land-based plus all the transmission lines, who knows how much agricultural land becomes useless. No-one knows, we need to slow down.

    There are very few to no consequences wrt offshore wind farms, michael. Especially as it pertains to mother whales and their babies. Offshore sonographic testing for Oil and Gas, different question entirely.

    And you know that the Coalition want to slow it down to, to a snail’s pace. There’s still 300 years worth of coal in our ground that they want to dig up instead.

  4. Asha @ #396 Tuesday, October 31st, 2023 – 9:45 pm

    Because lying through your teeth is the way to victory?

    I mean, it worked for a few of his predecessors.

    I don’t know if you’ll be interested, but I found this article by Matt Bai, on the reality distorting new google pixel phone, very interesting. In the week that the White House released its AI Executive Order by President Biden. I find the whole subject extremely fascinating in a sociological sense. I have made the article free to read:

    https://wapo.st/3skszzh

    https://wapo.st/3skszzh

  5. Everyone is fired up. But that’s what happens when all options aren’t properly investigated for every pro and con.
    As far as I am concerned, nuclear will get sorted, it just needs time to design a feasible working option.
    Australia has no need to rush into anything, we are insignificant, until China and India come to the party why does Australia lower its standard of living and charge into options which may prove to have terrible consequences down the track.

  6. Cat

    You know I have criticised Labor for not naming the nuclear waste depository site for AUKUS. There are several safe and technically feasible sites in SA.

    But politically maybe I have it wrong. If Qld politicians want a nuclear industry, give them one!

    Lets put a nuclear waste disposal facility in Dickson electorate! The park opposite Kallangur Bowls Club should be perfect. Dutton will be right behind it.

  7. michael says:
    Tuesday, October 31, 2023 at 10:04 pm
    Everyone is fired up. But that’s what happens when all options aren’t properly investigated for every pro and con.
    As far as I am concerned, nuclear will get sorted, it just needs time to design a feasible working option.
    Australia has no need to rush into anything, we are insignificant, until China and India come to the party why does Australia lower its standard of living and charge into options which may prove to have terrible consequences down the track.

    ______________

    Ziggy? Is that you?

  8. That’s fair enough Socrates.
    So you should be fine with transmission lines running through your backyard and a couple of wind turbines out the front.
    Farmers are going nuts with what Bowen is pushing.

  9. Meanwhile …

    Shifting sands in Germany as party lines blur and policies overlap in an increasingly anti-immigrant trend, highlighted the charismatic Sahra Wagenknecht forming her own party, leaving the leftist Die Linke.

    In part, at least, people pay attention to Wagenknecht because she’s long had a penchant for radical positions. When she first came of political age, even Die Linke was concerned that she was a Stalin apologist. But Wagenknecht’s politics have changed with age. Her communism has been tempered by some expressions of admiration for the free market. She’s also become increasingly critical of immigration, Germany’s Covid-19 policies, sanctions on Russia, climate protesters and “lifestyle leftists”, as Wagenknecht dubs many advocates for racial and gender equality

    Wagenknecht’s platform is still developing, but it isn’t likely to be all that different from the other parties’. The core governmental promises of better social services, a stronger economy and less bureaucratic hassle are shared across the political spectrum. The AfD and the Greens both campaign on increasing funding for education. Wagenknecht will, too. It won’t be surprising if she issues invectives against immigrants and climate activists.

    But she’s hardly the only one who has figured out that you don’t necessarily need sound policy solutions or real leadership if you play on people’s resentments. Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz, recently announced his plans to “deport on a grand scale”, while the leader of the CDU, Friedrich Merz, has gone on a veritable tirade, accusing Berlin neighbourhoods of not being adequately German and demanding that new immigrants to Germany declare their allegiance to Israel. With the world increasingly unsettled by violence in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as by the ongoing series of climate crises, German politics is making a sharp turn in a nationalist-populist direction. And Sahra Wagenknecht could soon be accelerating that journey.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/oct/31/germany-left-far-right-new-party-sahra-wagenknecht

  10. Block quotes lost in the posting; trying once more:

    Meanwhile …

    Shifting sands in Germany as party lines fracture and policies overlap and merge in an increasingly anti-immigrant trend, highlighted the charismatic Sahra Wagenknecht forming her own party, leaving the leftist Die Linke.

    In part, at least, people pay attention to Wagenknecht because she’s long had a penchant for radical positions. When she first came of political age, even Die Linke was concerned that she was a Stalin apologist. But Wagenknecht’s politics have changed with age. Her communism has been tempered by some expressions of admiration for the free market. She’s also become increasingly critical of immigration, Germany’s Covid-19 policies, sanctions on Russia, climate protesters and “lifestyle leftists”, as Wagenknecht dubs many advocates for racial and gender equality

    Wagenknecht’s platform is still developing, but it isn’t likely to be all that different from the other parties’. The core governmental promises of better social services, a stronger economy and less bureaucratic hassle are shared across the political spectrum. The AfD and the Greens both campaign on increasing funding for education. Wagenknecht will, too. It won’t be surprising if she issues invectives against immigrants and climate activists.

    But she’s hardly the only one who has figured out that you don’t necessarily need sound policy solutions or real leadership if you play on people’s resentments. Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz, recently announced his plans to “deport on a grand scale”, while the leader of the CDU, Friedrich Merz, has gone on a veritable tirade, accusing Berlin neighbourhoods of not being adequately German and demanding that new immigrants to Germany declare their allegiance to Israel. With the world increasingly unsettled by violence in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as by the ongoing series of climate crises, German politics is making a sharp turn in a nationalist-populist direction. And Sahra Wagenknecht could soon be accelerating that journey.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/oct/31/germany-left-far-right-new-party-sahra-wagenknecht

  11. Wind turbines and large transmission lines are not allowed in residential areas without a suitable buffer distance.

    In practice wind turbines are always sited in rural areas with less surface clutter and smoother wind. Warning people in urban areas about wind turbines in their front yard is like warning them of the risk of honest Liberal politicians. Zero risk.

    Some farmers are jealous about not getting the lease payments from turbines. The rest don’t care.

  12. And not only is Adelaide the ‘coolest city’ in Australia but now, in a New Scientist journal, Adelaide is “remarkable” for it’s renewable energy transition and offers “lessons – and hope – for the rest of the world.” Noting “widespread buy-in from citizens, who have enthusiastically covered their home in solar panels.”

    That’s you and me, Socrates.

    And Al Gore, in 2006 – “in SA you have probably one of the best examples of any state in the entire world where you see how leadership can make a tremendous difference in promoting renewable sources of energy.”

    And that’s because we vote Labor. And that’s another reason We Are The Coolest.

    Are you listening, Bob?
    Are you there, Bob?

  13. C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, October 31, 2023 at 8:29 pm
    The Liberal Party stenographer, Latika Bourke, is on the job again:

    London: Former prime minister Scott Morrison has warned his successor, Anthony Albanese, that the Chinese Communist Party could exploit his visit for propaganda purposes.
    ————————-

    C@T

    Perhaps somebody could advise Latika Bourke that just because some idiot devoid of credibility says something that she needn’t feel under any obligation to report it. It’s not news nor even worthy of her comment.

  14. I remember George M more than a decade or so ago saying that Labor don’t know how to use the power they have when in Government.

    I think there’s some truth to that. Labor needs to learn the power of a good Royal Commission to shine some light on the shenanigans around opposition to renewables before it gets too entrenched. Maybe the RC terms of reference should also include the media’s contribution.

  15. ItzaDream says:
    Tuesday, October 31, 2023 at 10:26 pm

    Block quotes lost in the posting; trying once more:

    Meanwhile …

    Shifting sands in Germany as party lines fracture and policies overlap and merge in an increasingly anti-immigrant trend, highlighted the charismatic Sahra Wagenknecht forming her own party, leaving the leftist Die Linke.

    Not the first hard lefty to move to the hard right as they age. I’ve always felt there’s not that much difference between the two anyway.

  16. Farmers’ lobby swings behind Dutton on campaign against wind farms
    The national farm lobby and federal opposition are championing locals who oppose current plans for renewable projects in their regions.
    ——-
    SMH HEADLINE
    “ Farmers’ lobby swings behind Dutton on campaign against wind farms. The national farm lobby and federal opposition are championing locals who oppose current plans for renewable projects in their regions.”
    ——————————

    I agree, farmers shouldn’t be forced to have power if they don’t want it. They’re welcome to rub sticks together if they prefer.

    I don’t know what they expect to flow down the existing powerlines (the ones they coincidentally aren’t opposed to) once the coal fired power stations close.

    Perhaps they think the Coalition’s imaginary mobile nuclear reactors will ‘magic’ the power to every farm and household.

  17. Hard lefties who still worship at the shrine of the “proletariat”- rather than at that of the rainbow connection that is far more fashionable on the left these days – are inevitably heading rightwards.

    The unionised industrial workforce in Western European countries (and what’s left of it in Australia) is now an elite: earning significantly more on average than many workers who have taken the trouble to get tertiary degrees: nurses, schoolteachers, etc.

    The greatest threats to this traditionally far left workforce are globalisation, mass migration and continuing developments in IT and Ai.

    Hence the appeal to them of the far right parties. I have read that a very high proportion of enthusiasts for the Le Pen family in France formerly voted Communist.

  18. What is going on at the UN under this Guterres dude? Constant retailing to the media of Hamas “Health Ministry” BS as official UN statistics. Endless guff calling for a cease fire.

    A cease fire? To what end? Does Guterres expect the Hamas leadership to turn itself over to be tried and executed in Israel? Or the Israelis to accept a pinky promise from Hamas never yo do it again.

    If the UN wants to be useful, it could go to work on the Arab leaders trying to persuade them to get on board with developing a lasting way of getting Gaza out of the hands of extremists (and, consequently, purring Iran back in its box). But the UN would prefer to engage in the easy job of hassling Israel to stop a military action which, as far as I can see, they have little choice but to pursue: whatever international law might or might not have to say (and of course it’s equivocal).

    (And now for those wondering how my post doesn’t breach William’s moratorium) I can’t believe I’m about to say this: I really wish the Turnbull Government hadn’t blocked Kevin Rudd’s run at the UN S-G job. He’d have been 10 times better than Guterres.

    There. I’ve gotten that off my chest. Now I feel like I need to go and wash my mouth out with soap.

  19. I just heard King Charles on the radio apologising for the appalling treatment of Kenyans by the colonial British, saying there could be ‘no excuses.’

    For anyone interested, I highly recommend the novel ‘A Grain of Wheat’ by Ngugi wa Thiong’o.

    It follows the lives of a group of Kenyan villages during ‘the Emergency’ – the 1952-1960 crackdown by the British following the Mau Mau rebellion.

    Just another example of how truly evil The British Empire was.

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