The Courier-Mail has a YouGov state poll for Queensland that is slightly worse for Labor than its already quite-bad-enough result from the last such poll in April, crediting the Liberal National Party with a two-party preferred lead of 57-43. The primary votes are Labor 26% (down one), LNP 43% (down one), Greens 14% (down one) and, interestingly, One Nation 13% (up three, and up five since the October poll). Steven Miles’ personal ratings have nonetheless improved, up six on approval to 31% and down three on disapproval to 44%, while David Crisafulli is steady on 40% and down three to 23%. Crisafulli now leads Miles 40-29 as preferred premier, in slightly from 40-27 last time. The poll was conducted last Monday to this Monday from a sample of 1019.
Don’t think the promise of a new Bribie bridge has had the desired effect. Mind you we have heard it all before so can’t blame people from being a touch sceptical.
I think the result in October is going to be even worse than you’d predict on this polling. There’s actually two completely opposite swings happening in Queensland. Obviously, there’s a huge swing to the LNP in outer metropolitan and regional Queensland. But simultaneously there’s a swing to the left, particularly to the Greens in inner-city Brisbane. The ALP is getting sandwiched in between. They’ll be murdered in regional Queensland, where they have spectacularly failed to deliver even fairly basic government services such as school teachers and maternity care. But then in the city areas they’ve lavished with spending, they’ll probably lose a seat or two to the Greens, too.
It looks like the ALP has given up on trying to salvage anything in regional Queensland, and are now just trying to defend a seat or two from the Greens in inner-city Brisbane.
davidwh says:
Thursday, July 18, 2024 at 3:01 pm
Don’t think the promise of a new Bribie bridge has had the desired effect. Mind you we have heard it all before so can’t blame people from being a touch sceptical.
———
My first visit to Bribie was by the old ferry.
Is the existing bridge too small?
My rough seat estimates from these numbers would be:
55-65 LNP
15-25 ALP
7-8 GRN
5 KAP/ON/OTH
So basically 30-40 Labor seats flipping either LNP or Green, with perhaps an LNP seat doing a federal Ryan and flipping to the Greens as well (that being Moggill most likely, the Green vote there was over 20% at the 2020 election). If not, Moggill will probably become a LNP vs. Green seat afterward, further complicated in that there’s a state redistribution due before the 2028 election so we’ll see how that goes.
Once they have elected an LNP government, what do the people of Queensland expect will happen? Wasn’t Crisafulli a Newman acolyte? Are Queenslanders looking for another dose of “tough love” government?
@Stuart at 4:14pm
It’ll likely be a long-term government too. With so many inner-city Greens on the crossbench, the LNP can run scare campaigns about a Labor-Greens minority government that would be very effective in keeping Labor out of the regional cities.
They can also kiss goodbye to the Great Barrier Reef, their long distance passenger rail services and their state-owned assets.
Rikali the current bridge is adequate if somewhat old. The main issue for most people is that if there is an incident on the bridge, and they do occur, the island is isolated and there are no critical incident facilities on the island.
From a political perspective a second bridge always gets mentioned at election time and people are very cynical. It’s like the hospital Ali raves about which is really only a fancy clinic. Any serious incidents still have to go to Caboolture… providing the bridge is open. 🙂
I guess their strategy now is to save as much of the furniture as they can, so Fentimen or Dick can mount some sort of opposition to a LNP government. Steven Miles will carry the can for a big defeat, and then leave parliament 6 months after the election.
Just wondering though if the LNP has managed find candidates in winnable seats and the people to man the booths. They have been struggling to find people according to a well connected LNP friend in Queensland.
@Algernon at 5:58pm
Maybe they could get Barclay McGain and his Young LNP mates out there?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DynNUg8uaQ
Assuming he can keep his brother away from egging him again.
https://www.news.com.au/technology/online/social/suspended-young-lnp-leader-barclay-mcgain-egged-by-younger-brother-for-content-on-tiktok/news-story/f57f8c60ae67b4e6b791cfb07df8ef05
Ugh, I thought Miles had had a few wins recently and we might’ve seen a tightening. Interesting poll none-the-less. Well the 50c fares haven’t started yet, so it remains to be seen how that goes.
You can fit 13 in a Hiace, otherwise they’ll need a Coaster.
LNP gone in 4 years unless they swap out the Police Commissioner.
Did that in 1957, got 32 years
Didn’t in 1929, got 3 years.
Didn’t in 1996, got 2 years.
Didn’t in 2012, got 3 years.
1957 was a corker, Gair expelled from ALP 24/4, appointed new P.C while still premier, Nicklin won on August 3, sacked that guy, appointed Frank Bischof.
Read between the lines of the dates, you can see what went down:https://www.police.qld.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-08/List%20of%20Qld%20Police%20Commissioners%201864-2019.pdf
@Badthinker at 7:39pm
Yeah, as expected from your moniker, leaving out the whole part where the Queensland Labor party split so viciously in 1957 to such an extent that it was unelectable until 1989.
Is it too late to make a Hail Mary switch to Cameron Dick?
@LVT at 9:13pm
Pretty much, yes. At this point, Cameron Dick would logically much prefer to sandbag his own seat of Woodridge than get entangled up in Steven Miles’ likely loss and try to make a clean break of it in order to take over opposition leadership for a strong rebound in 2028.
Changing the leader isn’t going to make any difference. The problem for the ALP is that outer metropolitan and regional Queensland have felt forgotten by the government. You can’t possibly turn that around in a few months. In fact, trying to sandbag inner city seats is only turning up the dial on the resentment in regional areas. For example, people are fuming where I live over 50c fares, which are seen as just another multi-billion dollar handout to city folks, paid for out of the hard work of folks out here in the mining industry, while we get very sub-standard service delivery. No teachers in the schools, no maternity services, undriveable roads, no police…..
Obviously this is baked in now I was hoping that maybe it would be a closer result than this but its looking like a big swing. The LNP will revert to OPV and this will disadvantage the ALP in Brisbane so they will be in for a while. Look forward to mass public servant sackings, service cuts, environmental protections abolished, assets sold , nuclear power reactors waved through.
Pretty much 40%solid behind LNP compared to about 30% for ALP ( using preferred Premier number) interesting that the ONP vote is so high. How are these polls conducted are they getting a lot of older folks from the regions? Looks like ALP on the way out for sure- no surprises but how will they conduct the campaign proper? Crisifulli is not a strong leader and plenty of things to exploit. Cando Newman’s chaotic rule and Mr Crisifulli and his team’s prominent role in the debacle also nuclear fears which could really resonate. Mr Crisifulli has not released any meaningful policies either other than tough on crime which will be virtually impossible to deliver on in the real world.No chance from these figures of an ALP win but how they conduct the campaign will determine the scale of the loss. ALP has plenty of ammo and nothing to lose . The level of anti government toxicity is not as intense as 2012 so the final result will be interesting.
One Nation has solid areas of support in the regions.
Doesn’t show up in Federal Elections because Electorate size is >110,000.
State Electorates are only 35,000, though they usually only do well when the National Party vote collapses in provincial seats.
In the coal mining areas, the CFMEU sellout of Labour Hire workers to the tune of over $1 billion in stolen wages, Labor might as well not show up.
Everyone else knows someone screwed over by the CFMEU deal, so it wouldn’t surprise if Labor has no MPs outside of a couple on Brisbane’s Southside and the Inner Northside.
The level of anti government toxicity is not as intense as 2012 so the final result will be interesting.
Similar situation, deeply unpopular Labor Government in Canberra, Qld Government perceived to be run by the CFMEU.
One thing about Palaszczuk and Miles, Red Light/Speed cameras /BoozeBuses, heavy police presence from the Newman and previous Governments noticeably absent.
Qlders don’t vote for that stuff, so Crisafulli is going to have to establish who’s boss with the QPS pretty quickly, or he won’t last long.
Newman wasn’t replaced because the 2015 election was only 7 months away, but if there had been 4 year terms then, he woulda been gone in July 2014.
It’s interesting you mention the unions sell out of traditional unionists and traditional ALP voters in regional Queensland, badthinker. I think it’s actually a major subtext to what is happening in Queensland in the build up to this election. The ALP is going to manage to lose some historically incredibly safe ALP seats, for example Rockhampton, which has been held almost continuously by the ALP since federation (a hundred years ago an ALP MP ran as an independent). Remember, the ALP started in central Queensland. A lot of this will inevitably be written off as just resistance to renewable energy and a desire to protect coal mining, but it’s actually much more complex than this. Firstly, I don’t think there’s a single coal miner in Queensland worried about losing their job, and they have skills that are readily transferable to other parts of the resources sector, which will continue to do well. The greater issues seem to be around a sense of abandonment by both the broader union movement and ALP who have in effect deserted the regions and converted mining royalties into pay rises for CFMEU workers on major infrastructure in SEQ and public servants in inner city Brisbane, while basic government services in regional Queensland have been neglected. This has resulted in failing schools, soaring crime and closing rural maternity units. People in the regions had genuine and reasonable expectations of a lot more of the surge in mining royalties being reinvested in their communities, the government said as much, itself. Instead they spent billions and billions on luxurious infrastructure in SEQ for people moving in from interstate and overseas.
As a few commenter have already suggested, this isn’t going to turn around in a hurry. The ALP has burnt off a lot of it’s traditional support in regional Queensland for at least a generation, with a regional primary vote in the order of 21-22% in what were until fairly recently ALP strongholds. Worse, in inner metropolitan areas the vote is increasingly moving to the Greens. I think it’s going to be a long time before the ALP can win an election in Queensland. They are going to be limited to a few ALP heartlands in the Brisbane suburbs, but that’s it.
I think these burnt off former mining unionists and ALP voters explain much of the recent surge in the One Nation vote. They traditionally hate the LNP and don’t trust their corporate links.
@Princeplanet the scare campaign against nuclear energy is not going to work in regional Queensland where people are utterly disillusioned with anything the Labor party says. They will occasionally come out with plans to replace coal mines/power stations with green energy projects to make up for future losses in the coal industry, but given their recent track record in other sectors nobody believes those promises will actually be delivered on. You’re also assuming the federal Coalition will be elected in 2028 (otherwise how else are these reactors going to be “waved through?”) which is far from a done deal, and if they aren’t then Dutton won’t be leader anymore and the seriousness of the nuclear plans will likely go with him…
By the way, I’m not right-wing at all. It’s incredibly silly that between older and out of touch people, mindless party drones, and unserious “environmentalists,” we have to deal with nuclear energy being turned into a left-right issue.
A vote of ~13% for One Nation would be a return to their ‘normal’ level of support, as per the 2017 state election where they got 13.73% of the vote.
Their vote crashed last time, enabling Labor to win, in particular, Hervey Bay, because of Pauline Hansons’s idiotic and self defeating opposition to Covid control measures. Those measures, including the border closures and brief lockdowns overwhelmingly supported by older citizens, many of whom switched their vote to Labor in response to her stance on that issue.
It was the one time I can think of where her usual rat cunning completely deserted her.
Demeter, I am not saying the opposition to nuclear will do them any good in the regions and far Q but might help them hang onto a few in SEQ. At least having a functioning opposition would be good for Qld . 57- 43 would be an opposition in low 20s higher 40s might mean in the 30s.
The ALP is going to manage to lose some historically incredibly safe ALP seats, for example Rockhampton, which has been held almost continuously by the ALP since federation (a hundred years ago an ALP MP ran as an independent)
[the seat of] Rockhampton was known as Rockhampton South for a few Terms after 1957.
RBJ Pilbeam held it from 1960-’69, he was a big fish locally[Mayor ’52-’53 & ’54-’82] but a guppy in the George St shark tank, and he couldn’t bring home the pork.
Pilbeam won it from Mick Gardner, a garage proprietor [C&G Motors] and 14/18 War vet, who won it for the ALP in 1956 and the QLP in ’57, when it was called Rockhampton.
====================================================
Prior to that it was held by Jimmy Larcombe since 1932.
Larcombe had been minister for Railways in the 1920s, lost the seat of Keppel in 1929.
Labor didn’t regain Keppel until 1944.
Keppel was known as Rockhampton North after 1957, and for a while.
Vince Lester held Keppel for the National Party from 1992-2004, when he retired.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
So, yeah, Labor has done well in Rocky, but it’s been thrown out a couple of times as well.
edit:
Rocky has always been fairly closed society, what it makes of current ALP member for Keppel is anyone’s guess. https://x.com/BrittanyLauga?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Recalling the last [2020] Election, Labor pushed “She kept us safe” in relation to Palaszczuk’s handling of the Covid crisis and increased their majority.
Now Brisbane is a big place compared to anywhere else in Qld, I couldn’t tell you the last names of any of the people 2 doors down from me, but in the towns it’s a different story.
If that 2020 messaging turns out not to agree with later facts on the ground, Labor is finished.
A clue might be the 2022 Federal Election, Country seats that Labor should have picked up in the Nationwide swing went the opposite way, Dawson, Herbert have been bellwethers, this time the LNP rep easily held on.
Unbelievable !, I cannot believe the the people of Queensland are that STUPID !.
After the last LNP episode with Newman !.
In the current political environment there will not be a situation where any party is out of power for a generation approx 20 years. All governments will change from one party to another within. 3 t0 4 elections. Look at wa.. Labor could not take a trick lost 3 elections on the trot… now after 2 back to back landslides the liberals hold only 3 seats one via a defection from the nats. The nats if I remember correctly have won only 3 seats.
1934Pc: I’m not fan of the LNP, but that was 9 years and four Leaders ago – I’m appealed when anyone votes for right-wingers, but that is hardly a phenomenon unique to Queensland.
Joeldi
1934Pc: I’m not fan of the LNP, but that was 9 years and four Leaders ago ???
I’ve just received a message from my electricity supplier, telling me I have $1000 credit !.
You will not get anything like that from the LNP !
I hope all Queensland voters get the same message !!!!!
The L/NP is secretive in the lead up to the election with ‘ whatever Labor is doing, we will continue, no worries’
When you have a Govt in place pumping billions into renewables and Dutton as Federal leader saying -nuclear- how can it be business as usual.
First it will be no money to renewables. Second continue to subsidise carbon polluting industries while accepting donations from them.
Thirdly, sell off every wind, solar and hydro project once all the costs to get it going have been paid by Qlders.
Dutton has stated the State L/NP will ‘ toe the line when the time comes’ for his nuclear reactors.
The Republicans in US have to purge their party of Trumpism by voting for what’s best for their Nation. Qlders have to lead the Nation in opposing Dutton.
The Big Boys know coal days are going and renewables have no profit at the power generation point,so nuclear will let them keep their snouts in the trough. Stop them before they can get started.