RedBridge Group: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition (open thread)

The first RedBridge Group federal poll since April gives the Coalition its first two-party lead from the pollster out of its seven published results this term.

While they are yet to chalk one up in Newspoll, Coalition two-party poll leads are seemingly becoming less uncommon, as the BludgerTrack poll trend measure (see sidebar) maintains its long slow trajectory in their favour:

• RedBridge Group has a federal poll that credits the Coalition with a two-party preferred lead of 51.5-48.5, compared with a Labor lead of 52-48 at the last such poll in April, and the first lead for the Coalition out of the seven such polls RedBridge has conducted this term. The primary votes are Labor 32% (down one), Coalition 41% (up four) and Greens 11% (down one). The poll was conducted July 10 to 19 from a sample of 1505.

• I neglected to record the result of the weekly Roy Morgan poll this week, so let the record note it found the Coalition leading 51-49 on two-party preferred (though with Labor leading 50.5-49.5 on the pollster’s own calculation using preference flows from 2022), out from 50.5-49.5 last week. The primary votes were Labor 31.5% (up half), Coalition 39.5% (up two), Greens 13% (up half) and One Nation 5% (steady). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1752.

Preselection news:

Rhiannon Shine of the ABC reports Mia Davies, former leader of the state Nationals, has confirmed she will seek the party’s preselection for the new federal seat of Bullwinkel, encompasses Perth’s eastern hinterland and the Avon Valley region.

• With Linda Burney announcing her imminent retirement from politics, James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph reports former New South Wales upper house member Shaoquett Moselmane will seek preselection for her southern Sydney seat of Barton. Moselmane failed to retain preselection at the 2023 state election after facing pressure over links to figures connected with the Chinese Communist Party, which resulted in his home being raided in ASIO, and has lately called on Labor to recognise a Palestinian state. Also announcing his retirement last week was Brendan O’Connor, creating a Labor vacancy at the next election for his safe western Melbourne seat of Gorton.

• The Nationals candidate for the western New South Wales seat of Calare will be Sam Farraway, who has held a seat for the party in the state Legislative Council since 2019. Andrew Gee has held the seat as an independent since resigning from the party in December 2022.

Paul Garvey of The Australian reports Jan Norberger, the sole nominee for Liberal preselection in the Perth seat of Pearce, quit the party a year ago for an unsuccessful Senate preselection bid with Australian Christians, then returned to it afterwards. Norberger held the state seat of Joondalup for the Liberals from 2013 to 2017.

Sarah Elks of The Australian reports the Greens will target the Labor-held Brisbane seats of Moreton and Lilley at the next election, and that former LNP member Trevor Evans is “seriously considering” running again in Brisbane, which he lost to the Greens in 2022.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

704 comments on “RedBridge Group: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition (open thread)”

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  1. Rex Douglassays:
    Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 2:58 pm
    The round 3 heats in the Olympic surfing from Teahupo’o in Tahiti were insane.
    Definitely worth watching the replay if you can.
    ________________
    It’s hard for us workers.
    That was a cool photo of Medina, even though I hate the way he ‘claims’ to try and influence the judges scores.

  2. In a scathing opinion GOP mayor tells Arizonans to vote for “competent” Kamala, against “joke” Trump

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/7/29/2259114/-In-a-scathing-opinion-GOP-mayor-tells-Arizonans-to-vote-for-competent-Kamala-against-joke-Trump?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

    “John Giles is the mayor of Mesa, Arizona. With 511,000 residents, Mesa is the 36th largest city in the US. Giles is a Republican. The city’s US Rep, Andy Biggs is an ex-Chair and current member of the House’s uber-conservative cabal, the Freedom Caucus. In short, the city is solidly right-wing.

    Yet Giles sees Trump as such a threat to the US that he wrote an editorial titled: Why as a Republican mayor, I support Kamala Harris over Trump. The piece, published on AZCentral – a prominent media outlet in Arizona – implored its readers to vote for Kamala Harris.”

  3. Things to consider when predicting the date of the Federal election–
    1 Northern Territory election on August 24th
    2 The final determination of redistributions by the AEC
    – WA on September 24th
    – NSW on October 10th
    – VICTORIA on October 17th
    3 Queensland State election on October 26th
    4 Christmas school holidays Dec 23rd to Feb 6th [NSW]
    5 WA State election on March 8th
    6 April school holidays and Easter Weekend April 7-21st

    Given these considerations, I think it most likely Labor will hold off to May 3rd, 10th or 17th and go full term with May 3rd being my tip if I were put on the spot right now. Badthinker your crystal ball needs some work mate if you still think they will jump at a September election before the redistribution process is completed.

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