Two new federal poll results, one of which I reckon to be Labor’s equal worst result of the term, together with a Roy Morgan poll from early June:
• The latest monthly result from Freshwater Strategy for the Financial Review has the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, out from 51-49 a month ago, from primary votes of Labor 30% (down two), Coalition 42% (up one), Greens 12% (steady). Anthony Albanese is down a point on approval to 34% and up four on disapproval to 49%, while Peter Dutton is down three to 34% and down two to 38%, with Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister unchanged at 45-41. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1057.
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor with a two-party lead of 50.5-49-5 on respondent-allocated preferences, from primary votes of Labor 30.5% (up half), Coalition 37.5% (up one), Greens 12.5% (down two) and One Nation 5.5% (down half). The two-party measure based on 2022 election preference flows has Labor’s lead unchanged at 52-48, which is a little better for Labor than I would expect based on the reported primary votes. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1634.
We all have our own perceptions MJ. Maybe Albo and I are old enough to remember Whitlam going too hard too fast with progressive policy and getting creamed at the next electi0n in the 70s then Shorten going too radical with CGT and Negative gearing and he lost the election… We shall see I guess if the negative perception is limited to lots of us politics tragics or shared in the wider community come election day. Cheers
Secondhand news but I heard good things about the government’s plans for the budget/campaign tonight.
It’s been an odd duck of a term thanks to the inflation battle (which this government INHERITED and did not cause, and which has constrained the government’s ability to take various steps, not that the media ever acknowledges it) which I think has taken significantly longer than Albo and co planned around and hence we’ve ended up with a bit of a prolonged dead spot where they thought they’d be handling the flip side of interest rate cuts and so on already. Plus the Voice which sucked up all political oxygen for too long, for absolutely no resulting benefit to anybody except Jacinta Price.
People don’t acknowledge it now but the first year or so of the government everything was going well. Promises kept. Renewable target set, renewable energy industry revitalized after being shat on for years by the Coalition, riding high in the polls, people kept talking about how long the government’s honeymoon was lasting and the main gripe from those never satisfied was endless talking about the Stage 3 tax cuts (and when Albo used some political capital on making the s3 tax cuts fairer, those never satisfied gave no credit and went onto the next gripe).
All that’s gone wrong is the interest rate cycle and the Voice. And I don’t even really think the Voice harmed the government that much other than sucking away attention and focus during months where the going was otherwise still good. It’s interest rates and inflation and it always has been.
With the US Fed cutting rates, the change of direction on interest rates is presumably in sight and with it, the government’s ability to announce some major new initiatives and the overall mood towards the government.
The vultures should enjoy the current situation while it lasts because I’m pretty sure you’ve already seen the bottom and it’s upwards from here, mateys.
Eddy says:
Thursday, September 19, 2024 at 10:29 pm
“ Cutting migration is the quickest, most direct, and effective way to pull house prices and renta down.”
Everyone blaming immigrants and international students for the housing crisis are just dog whistling to racism. How about we just cull the poor? That would work too. Or how about serious public housing building and getting rid of investors’ tax breaks?
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This certainly reads like that some on the “progressive” left would rather let Aussie poor die than dare challenge the migration industrial complex. And as I explained, supply side measures are slow, protested by local communities, and tax changes won’t get the payoff you hope.
And it is sad that you brought race into it. Race has nothing to do with it – one high income indian is better than two fruit pucker backpacking english. Migration is first and foremost an economic problem – the numbers matter the most.
Yet the progressive left prefer to play the culture war game rather than accept that the majority are absolutely right in wanting to bring the numbers down.
Elmer yeah I appreciate we are all creatures of our experience and that explains mostly how we act and what we believe, we’re no different really to other animals in that regard. I don’t remember anything before Keating but you would think this is a time for a radical rethink of how housing in particular works in this country. It cannot continue as is without societal decline, and the problem for Labor is it will probably be replaced by populists of the left and right if established parties like it can’t resolve it. Even if you want to preserve the status quo you need to throw a few bones to actually make it sustainable and ensure people don’t revolt.
Bizz Albo is bringing the immigration numbers down at last and Duttons policy on cuts to migration is only by a further 40,000 compared to Albo and only on a short term basis. Albo has also reduced the international students intake ceiling with education leaders push back and rejected 1000s of visa applications with Greens push back. The racism question is often raised because Dutton has signalled out Muslims, African and now Gaza refugees in his anti immigration rhetoric over recent years. Reducing immigration overall may not be racist, but targeting and naming specific groups like Dutton does certainly is in my mind.
Yep radical change may be needed MJ but it’s complex re housing and way beyond my intelligence to know how to fix it in one term of govt.
Power bills up for Duttons nuclear fantasy:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/revealed-how-much-power-bills-could-rise-to-pay-for-nuclear-plants-20240918-p5kbkm.html
Power bills would rise by about $665 per year to repay the cost of building seven nuclear plants under Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s energy plan, new modelling has found, challenging the Coalition to reveal the costings of its signature policy.
Australia’s electricity grid operators have warned that nuclear is a “comparatively expensive” power source that would take at least 16 years to deploy. The analysis, released on Friday by US non-profit think tank the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, is the first that quantifies how much it could cost people to pay for the opposition’s nuclear power ambitions.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/affordable-nuclear-duttons-plan-would-add-nearly-1000-a-year-to-the-power-bill-of-a-family-of-four/