There may be a Resolve Strategic federal poll through later today, but in case there’s not, a new open thread is order despite there not being much new to relate:
• Labor has chosen Tu Le, whose preselection bid in 2022 was scotched when the national executive imposed Kristina Keneally, as its candidate to recover the western Sydney seat of Fowler from independent Dai Le. Tu Le is a lawyer and daughter of Vietnamese refugees, and the decision to cast her aside to accommodate Keneally’s move from the Senate, where she had failed to secure a competitive position on the party ticket, was evidently received poorly by voters in an electorate that encompasses the Vietnamese community hub of Cabramatta. Dai Le defeated Keneally at the election by 1.6% after preferences, after trailing by 36.1% to 29.5% on the primary vote.
• SECNewgate’s semi-regular Mood of the Nation survey finds positivity towards the transition to renewables at its lowest level since the Albanese government came to power, at 47% positive and 26% negative; Labor favoured by 30% on managing the cost of living, steady from July, with the Coalition up two to 29%; 58% favouring Kamala Harris over 22% for Donald Trump; and a downward trajectory for the perceived performance of the Western Australian state government.
• A South Australian state by-election looms in the highly marginal Liberal-held seat of Black after former party leader resigned from parliament yesterday after being charged on two counts of supplying a controlled substance. Police allege the offence took place “between August 2 and 3 and on August 9”, the latter date being a day after he stepped aside as party leader. On September 9, The Advertiser revealed a video, seemingly filmed in the small hours of June 30, appearing to show Speirs snorting a line of white powder in what appeared to be his home. Speirs claimed the video was a deepfake, but The Advertiser published advice from experts who believed otherwise. The police were seemingly likewise unconvinced, having raided Speirs’ house and arrested him on September 26. The last by-election in the state, on March 23, resulted in Labor gaining former Liberal Premier Steven Marshall of Dunstan, overturning a 0.5% margin with a 1.4% swing.
Vlad says:
Monday, October 7, 2024 at 9:51 pm
… She is a bulldog with polls.
=================================
Thankfully not a female dog with polls Vlad.
When you know roughly when they’re due, it’s easy. Any of the posters can do this.
As I said, Essential tomorrow, hopefully a Yougov this Fri and possibly two polls next Sunday.
Should be a big week after a dry fortnight.
WB – your 2PP for Resolve if you have time?
” According to Howard, people in Tangney are very concerned about safety.
He says he has been showing the Liberal spokesman for keeping people safe, Senator Patterson, around the electorate and it’s an understatement to say that Patterson looks like he is anything but happy to be there.”
Law and order is a State issue of course, so what does a Federal Coalition Government propose to do, other than their usual posturing and dogwhistling?
Right-wingers motto: “Be afraid, be very afraid. We’ll protect you from the monster under the bed…”
paul A,
You’re exactly right. NSW has just finished a massive Local Government election and the new Councillors have barely got their feet under the table, Queensland has a state election and most people want to think about Xmas, not another election on top of all that will have gone before so recently.
nadia88 – The Greens made no attempt to recruit Senator Payman when she left Labor, and I believe they will never do so. From what I’ve heard (from Labor people who knew of her before she left the party) she is not a natural fit for the Greens, she isn’t that socially liberal. That’s all I will say for now.
Fubar….
You over-estimate the clout of the rural vote in WA.
Just back from a long road trip to the Murchison.
All the grain crops as far as Northampton looking good. Barely a sheep to be seen. However, your point is valid. The farmer vote has always been anti-Labor and essentially, anti-Perth. Fortunately, at the State level, the 100 year gerrymander whereby in the country electorates 2 sheep and 1 human got three votes, has been corrected.
Even if Labor found a cure for cancer, the hayseeds would still likely vote National – and at worst, Liberal.
”Dutton could spin the nuclear turbines with his own hot air about them. ”
You wouldn’t need any fissile material…
Steve777 @ #406 Monday, October 7th, 2024 – 10:12 pm
‘Be alert but not alarmed’ I thought was the Howard motto?
Anyway, it’s just the same old, tired old Liberal playbook. Fear-mongering about things that have been happening for centuries, ie crimes.
Leroy says:
Monday, October 7, 2024 at 10:14 pm
nadia88 – The Greens made no attempt to recruit Senator Payman when she left Labor, and I believe they will never do so. From what I’ve heard (from Labor people who knew of her before she left the party) she is not a natural fit for the Greens, she isn’t that socially liberal. That’s all I will say for now.
================
No, what I said earlier is that Payman is looking for a home, and perhaps she may need to look to the Greens. Setting up her own party is ridiculous – she was No.3 on the ALP ticket.
I’m not saying the Greens want her, or will take her. The Greens have a fairly structured process for selecting candidates. The LNP won’t touch her and the ALP have wiped her.
She’s on her own, but no I’m def not saying the Greens will pick her up. All I said is there is an opening on the Greens ticket for the 2028 half senate election, which is when Payman will be up for re-election.
“ About 2 in five Australian voters don’t regard him as “no” or “nasty”. That’s the reality.”
Nadia, probably considerably more than 2 in 5 think Dutton is nasty, but they care more about the how hard they are finding it just to get by than whether Dutton is likeable. Citizens don’t treat elections as popularity contests. They don’t vote for the nice guy; they vote for the leader they think can fix their problems, and at the moment ordinary citizens have heaps of problems. While the value of real wages have fallen, power bills and food bills and rents and mortgages have all risen to crushing levels. Part of Albanese’s problem is he wants to be liked, but that won’t win him the next election. And more and more citizens are no longer buying the nice guy with values routine anyway. What they are seeing instead is a weak and ineffectual smarmy leader in a time of an economic/housing crisis.
I would never preference the Liberals over Labor because I’m a socialist, and I despise Dutton and everything he stands for. But the Dutton won’t win because he’s worse than Albanese line trotted out here by his fans is a recipe for electoral disaster. I hate Dutton because of his heartless and divisive right wing attitudes but many citizens, even though they might not like him, care more about the how hard they are finding it just to get by. And every time Albanese opens his mouth with his platitudes claiming his government is leaving no one behind and cares about the disadvantaged, his popularity drops further. Because citizens know bull shit when they hear it, and they know they’re worse off than they were, and they must might well be prepared to see if Dutton can do better.
paul A,
Yes, I’m aware there are a lot of ALP and LNP members on this site, and yes of course if they had got wind of an early election, this site would be the first to know.
I look at the politics today, and am aware that there has been speculation during the year that campaign staff need to be on a footing.
As we stand today, we’ve had two polls come out today showing an uplift in the ALP primary. One poll had a substantial sample, the other poll we don’t know the sample. We will monitor.
We know the electricity rebates will have a deflationary effect, this qtr.
The surprise has been the drop in petrol/diesel prices. Why this has happenned, who knows.
But if you were the PM, feeling confident that inflation should show a down-tick on Oct-30, & knowing the pressure Michelle Bullock has been under, it would be a fair guess that rates will drop on Melb Cup Day.
It’s another month and a day until then. Who knows what the polls will show.
We have Newspoll this Sunday. I actually suggested a couple of weeks ago that the ALP primary will fall below 30%. I obviously don’t think that right now, but we’ll see what the other polls this week provide, yougov being the most interesting and hopefully this Friday.
But yes, back to your earlier point, I know very well that ALP & LNP campaign staff/members get a sniff of an early election, well before the public finds out, so I’m not trying to be a smartie or anything.
Just looking more at political tactics.
50.1-49.9 (to Labor, if it matters) on my method, but so much depends on how you treat that independent 12%.
Thanks WB. Matters to me. I’m a stickler
Yes that Indie vote is interesting. Consistently over 10% and hovering around 15%.
Is Clive Palmer tucked away there (he’d wouldn’t be hard to miss), or Family First, socialist alternative, or Teals (clearly the indie vote is not all Teals).
Eddy, I mostly agree. Albo has gone down this path where he’s trying to be loved by all and doesn’t propose anything that may be slightly politically difficult fearing it will damage the polls. This is gutless leadership and is in itself damaging Labor’s polls and reputation. He doesn’t have confidence in whatever vision of society he has or had, or his abilities to sell it and so voters sense he’s a weak PM. It doesn’t impress voters who could be his allies let alone the wider public.
Julia Gillard was actually willing to negotiate with the Greens and she was genuinely interested in governing. She didn’t cower in the corner and mutter “small target, small target” while stabbing pins in voodoo dolls of her Greens counterparts. I didn’t support the carbon tax – I wanted large, mandatory cuts in emissions rather than a less efficient market-based mechanism. I would have preferred a national disability support system focused mostly on developing public organisations for disability support that are highly skilled, effective at assuring quality, and are well-connected at the grassroots levels of communities. Nevertheless the carbon tax and the NDIS were major initiatives responding to very high priority public issues. The Gillard Government really went to the mat for those policies. Gillard wanted to get some big stuff done. I admire her for that.
The reason for the Greens’ reluctance to vote for some of the Albanese Government’s Bills is much of the time the Bill is not obviously better than nothing. The Bill could be worse than nothing because it will add to the voters’ experience that the federal government doesn’t provide genuine help. The Greens have to consider their commitments to the people for voted for them. It isn’t good for those voters if the Greens betray their trust. It isn’t good for the country if the Greens legitimise and enable government by token gesture.
The other factor is the Prime Minister’s lack of emotional self-regulation. He seems to be consumed by grievances and pettiness when he is supposed to be the national leader and he’s supposed to be a man with significant life experience. He conducts himself like the worst caricature of a student politician. When he bleats “Greens political party” with the apparent belief that this is an epic own, that the Greens have been concealing their status as a political party for the past forty years, he looks pathetic. When his colleagues go along with that flaccid insult, some of them must feel stupid. He’s the Prime Minister yet for some reason he has a young Greens MP living rent-free in his head. Does he not have anything better to do?
Negotiation is context-dependent. You need mature and serious negotiation partners in order to negotiate. If the other guy is a churlish, insecure, unambitious, and risk-averse flop, waiting for him to lose his role at the hands of the voters or of his colleagues could be the smart play.
AFR says tonight that Qld premier says no need for Albo to visit and campaign with him.
With friends like that ……
Seeing as several of the Greens posters have turned up, what are your thoughts on QLD in a couple of weeks. McConnell, Miller, Cooper, Maiwar, possibly Greenslopes. Sth Brissy (Amy McMahon) I think will win on primaries, or close too. You guys are on the march in Brisbane. Very organised outfit.
Your thoughts during the week pls if you have time to drop a post.
I gather you’ll all be around for QLD election night. Hoping Lordbain might swing by for a bit of analysis.
Nicholas, “Greens Political Party” is my pet hate. It’s just such an inane attempt to avoid substantive debates and a pathetic attempt at a burn, to the point it’s more a self-burn. How is this the boss level of political rhetoric after being in parliament for 30 years? Clearly Keating didn’t succeed in succession planning. Someone must have told them it’s going down badly because they’ve binned this line.
I’d be interested to see how Albo goes in Grayndler, hard to see him lose but hopefully he loses all the fat in his margin. He doesn’t deserve a safe return to Parliament.
Nadia, I’m on the other side of the country so no expert but from what I’ve seen my thoughts are a very likely 4, maybe 5 seats
South Brisbane: Safe Greens hold
Maiwar: Greens hold
McConnel: Greens gain
Cooper: Greens gain
Greenslopes: 3 way toss up – have a weird feeling the Greens will get ahead of Labor at final count and win 2PP
Miller: Marginal Labor hold
Condolences on your loss Been There. Losing a loved one is always hard. I’m glad you all could be with him at the end and I’m sure he appreciated it.
New thread.