Following a week in which abortion unexpectedly took centre stage of the Queensland election campaign, The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reports the issue “has helped Labor’s cause in Brisbane, where it faces losses to the LNP and the Greens”. The evidence for this would appear to be Labor internal polling suggesting Grace Grace is well placed to retain the Greens target of McConnel, outpolling them 27% to 24% with the LNP on 34%. This is quite a bit different from polling the column published from a different source last week, which had the Greens on 37.9%, the LNP on 27.4% and Labor on 27.2%. A “senior Labor insider” is further quoted saying a party that feared a near wipeout regionally, leaving it only with Gladstone outside of Brisbane, now sees “glimmers of hope in Cairns, Rockhampton and Maryborough”.
The other big event for the week was the closure of nominations and ballot paper draws, revealing a decline in the total number of candidates to 525 (5.6%) from 597 (6.4%) in 2020. A breakdown from Antony Green shows Labor, the LNP, the Greens and One Nation are contesting all seats, Family First is putting in its biggest effort in some time with 59 candidates, with lesser numbers from Legalise Cannabis, Katter’s Australian Party, Animal Justice and the Libertarians.
Also of note: the website Australian Election Forecasts, operating off an admittedly shallow pool of data, calculates an 85.8% chance the LNP will have a “clear path to government” compared with 4.4% for Labor, the median predicted outcome being 55 seats for the LNP, 29 for Labor, three each for the Greens and Katter’s Australian Party and one independent.
davidwhsays:
Sunday, October 13, 2024 at 6:46 pm
Re that McConnel poll showing an 8% reduction in Labor primary and only 1% increase in LNP with most of the increase showing going to others, it’s possible the LNP has picked up more of the Labor loss but lost votes to others.
I doubt the position is 60/40 now. If anything Labor has an edge in the campaign period and has likely picked up a little. I still expect a comfortable LNP win in 2 weeks though.
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mj provided the Hanson primary in 2020, earlier today – 1.4%.
It’s beyond belief that the Hanson & fringe right vote would go from 1.4% to 17% in inner Brisbane.
There are only 5 candidates in McConnel – two from the left and 3 from the right.
I agree with the earlier posters who canvassed this today. This poll is bullshit. WB also alludes to it in his intro where he references another more “credible” poll.
The only way that loose 15% in the McConnel numbers could be credible is if most of it were categorised as uncommitted.
I think i’m remembering The Rights of the Terminally Ill (Euthanasia Laws Repeal) Bill 2008, but I can’t find anything to back that up other than Fielding’s Statement
https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Legal_and_Constitutional_Affairs/Completed_inquiries/2008-10/terminally_ill/report/d06
which indicates he wasn’t voting for it.
Will keep searching to find out how he did vote.
BT, I couldn’t understand your earlier post. That’s all.
Maybe my bad.
Heard a rumour that onp.are really trots
Pauline was recruited by Harold Holt from his secret sub.
paul Asays:
Sunday, October 13, 2024 at 8:18 pm
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Thanks, paul A.
Well, the Narrative is the Katter Party is a conservative Party and I reject that on the basis of what it’s done.
KAP’s announcement that they’re preferencing LNP over Labor [in reality only the 3 Townsville seats, which LNP are winning with or without KAP prefs], shortly followed by an announcement that they’ll introduce a Private Members Bill to repeal Abortion laws, 3 weeks out from an Election, looks like treachery to me.
The Abortion was passed in 2018, they’ve had 6 years to put up a Private Members Bill, not a dicky bird.
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Let’s say they did put up such a Bill in the new Parliament:
1. Crisafulli can’t deny his MLAs a Conscience vote, so it will have NP support and some LP support.
2. What will Labor do?
Well, as a self described Liberal/Conservative fellow traveler, you would know that Labor will do whatever is politically convenient and have a self serving, mealy mouthed justification for doing so.
So, you can’t automatically assume that Labor would vote the Bill down.
For evidence, see Labor’s dance of the 7 veils on SSM.
They were fer it in the Howard years, agin it during the RGR Governments, for it again during the Abbott Government, resentful when Turnbull solved the issue.
Under ministerial solidarity won’t the LNP ministers, assuming the LNP win the election, be required to follow LNP policy? If the LNP policy on abortion is no change surely there would be sufficient support to vote the bill down.
How big is the win going to be?
If LNP win 70 seats and Katter gets 3, 43 backbenchers are needed, which probably aren’t there
But what happens if Labor allows a conscience vote?
It’s perhaps the greatest wedge ever, Crisafulli can’t put the acid on Labor without looking weak, can’t disavow Katter without looking a fool, can’t guarantee that a Private Members Bill wouldn’t be passed and can’t rule out a Conscience Vote because there’d be a rebellion in the National Party.
Still 13 days to go, I wouldn’t think Abortion is a big issue one way or another, but Brisbaneites have it pretty easy, if this fed into a perception that the NP part of the LNP are going to crack down hard on Brisbane there might be 2nd thoughts.
Badthinker there will be no second thoughts. It will be a LNP landslide Queensland’s have been on their lathes making Baseball(Cricket) Bats and starting tomorrow will be swinging them on Labor.
Does anyone know if there will be a state-based poll this week? Being the beginning of pre-poll, it’ll be interesting if there is any change. These new announcements by Labor may resonate with many esp with COL being the main issue. A personally believe the youth crime issue is a media beat up and the solution by the LNP is farcical. It wont solve the problem – but rather, it will make matters worse.
The youth committing the crimes are often from broken homes (family units), did poor at school, were bullied / are the bully (trauma etc) and are now bored (unemployed / not in tafe or school). These are some of the causes that need to be addressed – which is substantially more than just a 4 word slogan from Crisafulli ‘Adult Crime, Adult Time’… What garbage. And if the polls are correct – the ‘smart’ people of Townsville (and elsewhere) will have a worse situation in 4 years.
I sort of agree with you Damo.
That gov’t sounds like it is well and truly finished. There has been desperate stunts with 50 cent fares, and rebates. ie: Where is the money coming from, and what projects are set aside elsewhere to discount rail fares for SEQld. This is not how to run a state. It’s desperation.
Now we have an “abortion” scare. It’s all desperation from a desperate gov’t desperate to hang on.
Probably a good warning of what Dutts can expect from “sinking” Labor in the next Federal election.
I loved seeing that 51-49 LNP on newspoll tonight.
Amjid says:
Sunday, October 13, 2024 at 11:16 pm
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We should have a YouGov state based poll this week, and hopefully Newspoll may drop a poll on election eve.
paul Asays:
Sunday, October 13, 2024 at 11:22 pm
I sort of agree with you Damo.
That gov’t sounds like it is well and truly finished. There has been desperate stunts with 50 cent fares, and rebates. ie: Where is the money coming from, and what projects are set aside elsewhere to discount rail fares for SEQld. This is not how to run a state. It’s desperation.
Now we have an “abortion” scare. It’s all desperation from a desperate gov’t desperate to hang on.
Probably a good warning of what Dutts can expect from “sinking” Labor in the next Federal election.
I loved seeing that 51-49 LNP on newspoll tonight.
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In respect of the Cost of Living measures, Labor have stated they will be funded from increased taxes on the greedy mining companies. The equally desperate LNP have announced that they will match the Cost of Living measures but will also cancel the increased mining taxes. So it is the LNP that has questions to answer; How will they fund the Cost of Living measures? Back to the “Can Do” formula perhaps? They don’t change their spots do they!
As for the Abortion scare campaign, that was all their own doing, nothing to do with Labor. The Katters announced they would introduce a private member’s bill restricting abortions. Then some LNP mps and candidates announced they would support the bill, putting Christafilli in an embarrassing bind. Par for the course for the LNP rabble in Qld. How could you let them back into government?
“e.g.w.says:
Monday, October 14, 2024 at 12:29 am”
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Agreed – the Abortion ‘scare’ is all the LNPs fault. Also, from my knowledge the LNP have only committed to the 50c fares, which we know will be cut after 100 days because they’ll say its not sustainable. We also know the mining companies will pay less royalties and then we’ll also be paying significantly more in rego, electricity and get less services. They LNP already said there would be less beds – esp in the regional areas (the ones contemplating voting LNP). But sure – lets elect an LNP Govt which has the same people as the Can-Do days… As the old sayin’ goes – a Leopard doesnt change its spots… so prepare for deep cuts and mass sackings!
The “abortion” scare is not the LNP’s fault.
Chrisafulli has said he won’t change the laws currently in place.
The abortion “scare” has been generated by a desperate ALP, who are now panicking about the loss of both Clown Miles and Fentiman’s seats. It’s known as sandbagging. Check up thread from the posters earlier today.
Qld is morphing into the “Alabama” of Australia, like it or lump it. OPV to be implemented by the incoming Chrisafulli gov’t (he’s even announced it pre-election), should preserve a long term LNP gov’t until the Greens and Labor can sort themselves out. In the meantime – let the Greens and Labor fight it out.
Eventually either the Greens or Labor will command control of the “left” in Australia, but whilst they slug it out, the LNP can rule. Remember Machiavelli. If you want to rule your enemies, create conflict amongst them. This is what the LNP will do to Labor & the Greens once in power.
PS – If you don’t like where QLD is heading, you are always welcome to move to NSW, SA or Victoria.
“The “abortion” scare is not the LNP’s fault.
Chrisafulli has said he won’t change the laws currently in place.
The abortion “scare” has been generated by a desperate ALP”
@paul A
Paul instead of just defaulting to your anti-Labor bullshit get your facts right. The abortion controversy started when KAP said they planned to introduce a bill to repeal the legislation. LNP response is ‘it’s not part of our plan’. But what they won’t say if they will allow a conscience vote from their Mp’s to vote on it. Since only 3 of their Mp’s voted for decriminalising abortion originally. And since canidates in Springwood, Oodgeroo, Redcliffe, and Rockhampton have also expressed strong views against abortion. It’s a worthwhile question asking because they may have the potential to get the bill passed from the composition of the parliament.
“OPV to be implemented by the incoming Chrisafulli gov’t (he’s even announced it pre-election), should preserve a long term LNP gov’t”
They had OPV last time LNP were in government. They also had 78 seat majority and only lasted one term. If a week’s a long time in parliament then four years is a eternity.