Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)

Marginal changes on the primary vote prove sufficient to give the Coalition a two-party lead in Newspoll for the first time this term.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll records a two-party lead for the Coalition for the first time since this term, at 51-49 after a 50-50 result three weeks ago, though both major parties are unchanged on the primary vote, Labor at 31% and the Coalition at 38%. The movement is down to a one-point drop for the Greens to 12% and a one-point increase for One Nation to 7%. Anthony Albanese is down three on approval to 40% and up three on disapproval to 54%, edging out past results in August (41% and 54%) and last November (40% and 53%) as his worst net result for the term. Peter Dutton is respectively up one to 38% and steady at 52%, with preferred prime minister narrowing from 46-37 to 45-37. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1258.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

100 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)”

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  1. “ Anthony Albanese is down three on approval to 40% and up three on disapproval to 54%, edging out past results in August (41% and 54%) and last November (40% and 53%) as his worst net result for the term”

    Nobody here seems to have mentioned Albanese’s Tourette’s Syndrome mocking insult in Parliament.

    Citizens have just added ‘nasty’ to their weak, ineffectual, hypocritical, stubborn, arrogant and unambitious opinion of their Prime Minister.

    Albanese’s planned ‘ambitious’ second term may well be too little too late.

  2. The Tourette’s comment suggests Albo’s feeling the pressure and/or a bit cognitively deficient. A pretty dumb thing to say and I think he recognised that fairly quickly but should have realised it before he said it, Anne Aly’s reaction was particularly telling. People can forgive those things if you’re actually doing the job that is expected of you, but atm they just look like seatwarmers. I don’t think Labor is going to find a centrist path to forever govt. if it doesn’t directly compete with greens it will get squeezed

  3. It was mentioned Eddy, at least the minus 14%.
    Shocking figure for this ‘wonderful PM’, but if they think this is great, let them think that.
    Most of the laborites fled the site when they saw the 2PP.
    Cat and boerwar surprisingly quiet.
    Disappointing the green primary however.

  4. On important matters Albo talks bipartisanship but then refuses to compromise and tries to wedge the Coalition. Did it with the Voice Referendum and did it with the 7 Oct motion last week. He must think voters are complete mugs.

    It’s good to see a whole lot of smugness wiped off quite a few posters.

  5. Albo promised to reduce household energy bills by $275 per year – every year (and not through giving us our own money back but by actually reducing retail electricity prices).

    Someone explain how he’s going to achieve that between now and May next year?

  6. Fubar, I don’t think people are interested in wedge politics. It’s why more people are being put off the ALP and LNP. It’s all meaningless manipulation while actual problems and coming up with solutions are left ignored.

  7. Only party who’s primary vote drops in the new poll is Greens. Nek minnit place filled with Greens gloating and making the usual claims that Labor would do better if they were more like the Greens despite the evidence to the contrary. . Showing true colours once again.

    Anyway, just as one didn’t particularly react to the vaguely better polling earlier in the week, one doesn’t hit the red alert button over one poll vaguely worse.

    I always thought that if interest rates hadn’t turned around this far into the term the polling would have actually got worse than this by now.

  8. Like KB, I can’t see that things have moved all that much against the Government in this poll. The electorate clearly still sees Labor as meh, but, if an election were held tomorrow, would still probably give it enough seats to form a minority government.

    But the assessment of Albo personally is concerning, but hardly surprising. We all always knew deep in our hearts that he wasn’t really up to the job, and so it has turned out.

    The risk now is that.the negative attitude towards Albo personally begins to deep into thr 2pp. Ir hasn’t done so that much so far, but elections being unpopular leaders more to the front of people’s minds.

    They can’t get rid of him, so they will need to thrust some of their other spokespeople further forward and him more into the background. And perhaps bring the date of the wedding forward.

  9. meher baba 4.06am
    [But the assessment of Albo personally is concerning, but hardly surprising. We all always knew deep in our hearts that he wasn’t really up to the job, and so it has turned out.]

    Geez, that’s a cracker !

  10. “ LABBOUNEH, Lebanon—On a forested mountainside near the border between Israel and Lebanon, two tunnel shafts descend dozens of feet into the rocky earth.

    Around 300 feet away, the blue United Nations flag waved atop a peacekeeping observation post.

    The Israeli military took a group of reporters into Lebanon on Sunday to see the shafts, which it said were among hundreds of tunnel entrances and underground bunkers used by Hezbollah militants to store weapons and hide fighters west of the Lebanese village of Labbouneh.

    Israel has faced criticism from the U.N. and European capitals for injuries to peacekeepers as Israeli forces engage in a ground offensive against Hezbollah. U.N. personnel have been wounded and compounds have been damaged, according to the U.N.

    Israeli officers said the presence of the tunnels was evidence that Hezbollah had built military infrastructure around U.N. and civilian settlements, using them as cover. They also said that the U.N. peacekeepers, who are supposed to monitor and prevent militant activities along the border, weren’t doing their job.“

    https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/hezbollah-tunnel-entrances-abut-u-n-peacekeeping-position-israel-alleges-4b821c03

  11. And the true believers, holding hands, ready:-
    “We Shall Overcome”
    Song by Joan Baez

    “We shall overcome
    We shall overcome
    We shall overcome, someday”

    Chorus:
    “Oh, deep in my heart
    I know that I do believe
    We shall overcome, someday”

    Thankfully 31+ are still holding hands
    And enough probably won’t hold hands with Dutton and Barnaby

  12. The Corduroy Kid is on patrol today, brimming with andenalin, as the polls remain unchanged.
    Well may the true believers fall into song, with a rendition of “we shall overcome”, the rest “stand easy” as a report arrives justifying the killing of thousands.

    (The whole bloody ME thing is wrong)

    Thankfully we’re all living in peace (in a manner) throughout the wide brown land and to the PM’s credit, Australia will remain that way despite the “skirmishes” in the polls and excitement in the ranks.

  13. FUBARsays:
    Monday, October 14, 2024 at 4:25 am
    meher baba says:
    Monday, October 14, 2024 at 4:06 am

    [But his Fiancé is so nice.]

    Eddysays:
    Monday, October 14, 2024 at 5:13 am
    “ But his Fiancé is so nice.”

    “Fubar, and Toto is nice too.”

    It’s perhaps not such a good idea to be cynically flippant considering the debris left around Parliament House after years of the mistreatment of women by consecutive LNP governments.

  14. goll: Albo has always been one of those people whose self-confidence exceeds their capabilities.

    Sometimes, when such people are thrust into top jobs, they find something extra within themselves and step up to the mark.

    It hasn’t happened with Albo.

  15. goll

    Albo has never been as smart as he thinks he is. I had hoped that, when he became PM, he’d work effectively within his limitations. But, unfortunately, he’s continued down the path of doing things that he thinks are politically clever, but they aren’t.

    And he struggles to lead. The leadership on the government’s response to the ME situation has been scheissenhausen. Ditto for the immigration issues earlier this year. And the Voice last year.

    He’s NBG. And there’s really nobody to replace him who would be any better. And yet, the economy is ok and the electorate likes to give governments two terms in which to prove themselves, so I still think Labor will just fall over the line for, at worst, a minority government. And then struggle on.

    Not much to look forward to, is it? It’s getting almost as silly and muddled as Tassie politics.

  16. meher baba says:
    Monday, October 14, 2024 at 5:59 am
    goll

    Albo has never been as smart as he thinks he is. I had hoped that, when he became PM, he’d work effectively within his limitations. But, unfortunately, he’s continued down the path of doing things that he thinks are politically clever, but they aren’t.

    And he struggles to lead. The leadership on the government’s response to the ME situation has been scheissenhausen. Ditto for the immigration issues earlier this year. And the Voice last year.

    He’s NBG. And there’s really nobody to replace him who would be any better. And yet, the economy is ok and the electorate likes to give governments two terms in which to prove themselves, so I still think Labor will just fall over the line for, at worst, a minority government. And then struggle on.

    Not much to look forward to, is it? It’s getting almost as silly and muddled as Tassie politics.

    ___________

    I wouldn’t go so far as Tassie politics 🙂

    As for the state of play, Aussies like conviction politics. Preferably convictions that will improve their lot. The issue at hand is Albanese (like Rudd with climate change) lost a lot of goodwill after the Voice referendum. Hard to rebuild.

  17. Arky says:
    Monday, October 14, 2024 at 12:14 am
    Only party who’s primary vote drops in the new poll is Greens. Nek minnit place filled with Greens gloating and making the usual claims that Labor would do better if they were more like the Greens despite the evidence to the contrary. . Showing true colours once again.

    Anyway, just as one didn’t particularly react to the vaguely better polling earlier in the week, one doesn’t hit the red alert button over one poll vaguely worse.

    I always thought that if interest rates hadn’t turned around this far into the term the polling would have actually got worse than this by now.

    _________

    Even the Greens drop is just MOE. But yes, the trend is Labor down (most agree) and Greens static (a few of the cheer squad think they will suddenly burst forth into sunny polling uplands). It is the conservatives that are improving. Down to Aussies wanting to stay out of other people’s business mixed with a dash of prejudice.

  18. Just musing further on how Albanese could rebuild. Industrial relations and infrastructure are two things that he is also known for. Labor has scored well on industrial relations as a whole, but it hasn’t had much traction politically and the main headline is a negative i.e conflict with the CFMEU. No new Accord or rejection of Workchoices. So infrastructure? Made in Australia has stalled. Housing has partially stalled. Still difficult, but infrastructure may be the easier option. Needs some better marketing though 🙂

  19. People making this about Albo, but it’s really just voters are in a shit mood because of global events, Covid disruption to everything, Russia-Ukraine economy and world view, possible US isolationism under Trump, Israel undermining the existence of the UN.
    There is a lot to be grumpy about that isn’t Albos fault, but people pointing fingers at him make it a problem for him anyway.

    Imagine if Morrison was still PM.

    If anything, I think next election will be very good for independents, minority government is inevitable, but that’s OK.

  20. I think that DeocracySausage has nailed it. Albo has never recovered from the referendum. It became his government’s focus, but they didn’t put enough (any?) effort into selling it. Dutton destroyed it with “If you don’t know, vote No”. That slogan worked because we hadn’t been told anything about how it might work or be structured. Did anybody now?

    Albo surrendered the initiative to Dutton who has sailed along majestically as the heir apparent to the Prime Ministership ever since.

    This has been a wasted opportunity for Labor to govern – wasted on the half-baked Voice brainfart.

  21. Griff,

    Agree with your comment that Albo needs to do something bold to turn things around, but I don’t think infrastructure will work. He can’t, because all the state infrastructure is already crowding out housing construction, and a major federal infrastructure push would only make it worse , and housing is killing them. The continued mine approvals don’t help for construction workers either….

    For mine it needs to be health. If the government could restore bulk billing for all, maybe by a huge increase to standard Medicare rebates in the short term and then a larger package of reforms to make it sustainable into the future (including measures to make GP more attractive to me medical graduates)

    Would probably require some tax measures to pay for it though

  22. meher babasays:
    Monday, October 14, 2024 at 5:59 am
    goll

    ‘Albo has never been as smart as he thinks he is.

    ..and the electorate likes to give governments two terms in which to prove themselves.’

    —————
    Two terms. Not strictly true.
    After the Labor right faction got the numbers to get rid of popular PM Rudd, Labor lost the 2010 election:
    Labor 72: 73 Liberals.

    However they had support from Independents Wilkie (who redrew it later when Gillard refused to tighten gambling restrictions he wanted – Labor certainly then and now doesn’t support vulnerable children and adults) and Windsor and Oakeshott.

    If they had all chosen Abbott and the LNP, Labor would have been a one term government then.

    The voters got their revenge on Labor on 2013. And for their decision in 2010, Windsor and Oakeshott were voted out.

  23. Reading the pieces in the Guardian about the Voice Referendum and the claims that it was lost because of
    “misinformation” – yet the articles all, combined, have many of the issues that were claimed to be “misinformation” – demands for Aboriginal seats at every level of government, etc.

  24. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Here Simon Benson tracks Newspoll results since February this year.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/anthony-albanese-has-lost-the-newspoll-2pp-lead-at-the-worst-possible-time-for-his-government/news-story/b2d934a5a2eb6963d020565b584cc00b?amp
    You can understand Albanese’s desire for a majority government. But this is different from saying that a minority government would be bad, writes Sean Kelly
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/are-we-heading-for-minority-government-we-could-do-a-lot-worse-20241011-p5khph.html
    The prime minister is a political operator rather than a visionary. His inability to persuade and sustain arguments is beginning to show, writes the AFR’s James Curran who says Anthony Albanese has yet to grow into the prime minister’s job.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/anthony-albanese-has-yet-to-grow-into-the-prime-minister-s-job-20241013-p5khvv
    John Kehoe reports that the nation’s top business and economic groups have piled on political parties for failing to produce a serious economic agenda to fix weak labour productivity and persistent inflation, as industry frustration boils over about six months from a federal election.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/economic-agenda-missing-on-cusp-of-election-20241011-p5khjc
    They may be short on detail, but Opposition Leader Peter Dutton is charging ahead with two flagship policies that may serve Labor and ensure Albanese’s second term as PM. It may well come down to the Teals, writes Michael Pascoe.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/peter-duttons-policies-may-swing-teals-to-labor-in-election/
    Karen Middleton reports that the Business Council is blaming slow local decision-making for feeding Australia’s housing supply crisis. She says the BCA is urging state governments to force local councils to consult housing development proponents and set agreed deadlines, case by case, for ruling on their applications – then be held accountable for meeting them.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/14/business-council-blames-slow-local-decision-making-for-feeding-australias-housing-supply-crisis
    Labor wants multinationals to reveal their worldwide income for tax purposes. That plan is under attack, writes Paul Karp. He says the Coalition wants to water it down, but the Tax Justice Network thinks the exemption shouldn’t be granted, because basic data about a company’s aggregated revenue “does not enter into areas of commercial sensitivity”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2024/oct/14/labor-wants-multinationals-to-reveal-their-worldwide-income-for-tax-purposes-that-plan-is-under-attack
    Steven Miles will hold a state plebiscite on Peter Dutton’s nuclear power plans if he wins the 26 October poll, a move that could polarise the electorate in the LNP’s strongest state at the next federal election. The Queensland premier said he had received legal advice on the nuclear issue and raised the possibility of initiating a plebiscite on the same day as the federal election.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/14/queensland-premier-will-hold-plebiscite-on-nuclear-power-if-he-wins-state-election
    The SMH editorial declares that the failure of all sides of politics to pick up the pieces after the Voice defeat is a national disgrace.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/failure-of-all-sides-of-politics-to-pick-up-the-pieces-after-the-voice-defeat-is-a-national-disgrace-20241013-p5khv9.html
    A $25 billion hole has been blown in the federal budget since 2019 due to a collapse in tobacco excise, prompting calls for the federal government to reverse years of ever-increasing taxes on cigarettes or risk driving more people into buying from the black market.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/budget-bottom-line-goes-up-in-smoke-as-black-market-reaps-reward-20241007-p5kgfc.html
    Two weeks ago, suggestions David Crisafulli’s opposition had a ‘secret plan’ to limit abortion rights were dismissed as just a scare campaign. Now, not so much, writes Ben Smee who says abortion wasn’t on the Queensland election agenda but now it is a threat to the LNP campaign.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/13/queensland-election-2024-lnp-abortion-policy-david-crisafulli
    A potential overhaul of bank lending rules in favour of potential first home buyers has split the big banks and others weighing up the risks of the move on the financial system, despite new analysis suggesting it could lower their interest rates, and help up to 50,000 people enter the property market. Shane Wright and Sumeyya Ilanbey tell us that as a senate inquiry looks into financial regulation and the way it affects home ownership levels, investment bank Barrenjoey says loosening the lending rules could let first-time buyers borrow tens of thousands of dollars more than they currently do.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/relaxing-lending-rules-to-help-home-buyers-splits-opinion-20241011-p5khlh.html
    South Australia will bid to host the COP31 climate change conference in 2026 – a global event that would attract more than 30,000 visitors and generate an economic benefit upwards of $500m. State government analysis has confirmed Adelaide has the capacity and capability to hold the annual conference, and a bid will be formally submitted to the federal government.
    https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/adelaide-will-formally-bid-to-host-cop31-climate-conference-in-2026/news-story/84784cf2da935aad2810fdacf4567915?amp
    Australia’s school funding system is broken. These academics have some ideas about how to fix it.
    https://theconversation.com/australias-school-funding-system-is-broken-heres-how-to-fix-it-240908
    The cost of building the three largest electricity transmission lines vital to Australia’s transition to clean energy has doubled to at least $16 billion since they were first announced. Further increases are feared, stoking concerns of a hit to power bills from projects vital to decarbonisation, writes Angela Macdonald-Smith.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/energy-bill-fears-grow-as-transmission-costs-blow-out-20240916-p5katm
    Today Bruce Lehrmann returns to court in a bid to launch an appeal against the rape finding by judge Michael Lee without having to provide a $200,000 surety demanded by the Ten Network or pay the $2m legal costs that have been awarded against him.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/lehrmann-bid-to-appeal-rape-case-without-putting-up-200k-surety/news-story/cabbeaa172dea9a31ee6dcfd1bf25bad?amp
    Clancy Yeates wonders if banks use might Reserve Bank rate cuts to claw back a bit extra from savers.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/would-banks-use-reserve-bank-rate-cuts-to-claw-back-a-bit-extra-from-savers-20241010-p5khdq.html
    According to Gwen Liu, the Australian construction industry has had an average of eight construction firms become insolvent every day since July with little protection for homeowners.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8785159/the-crisis-in-australian-construction-eight-firms-collapse-daily/?cs=14264
    Electric car sales have slumped. Misinformation is one of the reasons, suggest these contributors to The Conversation.
    https://theconversation.com/electric-car-sales-have-slumped-misinformation-is-one-of-the-reasons-240545
    Scott Morrison has become chairman of Space Centre Australia, which plans to take advantage of new laws allowing more rocket launches in Australia from the likes of Elon Musk. What could possibly go wrong?
    https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/morrison-heads-new-space-job-as-global-rocket-industry-heats-up-20241008-p5kgjg
    Australia’s mainstream media continues to push the unfounded October 7 narrative of “babies beheaded” and “mass rapes” which gave rise to Israel’s extreme “collective punishment” in Gaza. Michael West reports.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/acma-press-council-duck-media-regulation-on-false-october-7-israel-claims/
    China’s plan to boost flagging growth is the very definition of economic insanity, posits George Magnus. For the fourth time in 16 years, ‘bazooka’ stimulus aims to reset the economy – but China’s problems demand structural solutions, he says.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/oct/13/chinas-plan-to-boost-flagging-growth-is-the-very-definition-of-economic-insanity

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    Peter Broelman

    Megan Herbert

    Geoff Pryor

    Joe Benke

    Fiona Katauskas

    Spooner

    From the US





    .webp












  25. “Restaurant boss ‘acted suspiciously’ at synagogue as police found water bombs in car”

    “ Nomad restaurant founder Al Yazbek, who last week apologised “unequivocally” for holding a Nazi sign at a Pro-Palestine protest, was questioned by police after acting suspiciously outside a Bondi synagogue in Sydney’s east in 2014, when his car was found loaded with “water bomb” balloons.

    The next day, he made his way into a rally for Israel in nearby Dover Heights where more than 10,000 members of Sydney’s Jewish community had gathered, before the restaurateur was spotted by security and removed by police.”

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/restaurant-boss-acted-suspiciously-at-synagogue-as-police-found-water-bombs-in-car/news-story/da4a9b52461ed59559e9165fa7356ec6

    Despite publicly claiming the other day that he really does love everyone and just wants peace – he has form.

    Their business is buggered.

  26. Since the moon landings never took place, I guess it’s quite fitting Scott Morrison has joined Space Centre Australia.

  27. I’ve been saying for a year now that Albo lost his mojo after the Voice defeat. I did think at one point he’d recover it, but alas he hasn’t. There is nothing for it now, time to go big and govern the hell out of government.

  28. If Albo gets a second term and wants to turn things around, he can take a leaf out of the Hawke Government’s book and start work on some policy reforms.

    They’ve done a couple of relatively minor things this term – eg, for Aged Care funding – and that’s gone down ok. The NDIS stuff has been more controversial, but I think it’s an improvement.

    They should bring in some of the great and the good (retired politicians and officials, academic experts, etc.) onto task forces (not royal commissions: they take too long) and work up some “strategies” (as they were often called in the Hawke era). And then fund and implement them.

    Not BS processes like the one which wasted Craig Emerson’s time and intelligence in the pursuit of the snark (aka, the nasty, money-gouging supermarket chains). But some serious policy development.

    Here are a few suggestions, with the degree of political difficulty increasing as we go down the list:

    – a primary/frontline health care strategy (GPs, bulk-billing, urgent care centres, emergency departments, nurse practitioners, rural multipurpose services, greater integration of community medicine with pharmacy, allied health, etc, etc.);

    – a comprehensive revamping of immigration detention/deportation arrangements and processes (in light of recent High Court rulings) to ensure that they are both fair but also protect the community from violent criminals;

    – rethinking how income from assets is taxed (encompassing negative gearing, CGT, depreciation, etc.);

    – a 25th anniversary review of the GST which, even if it doesn’t look at the rate, has a good look at the exemptions (particularly for private health care, but also for private education);

    – the universities: is there a future way of funding decent education and research other than through expecting universities to offer mediocre courses to squillions of overseas students; and

    – school funding: responding in a measured and strategic way to the continuing drift of the children of the middle classes out of public schools (especially non-selective secondary schools) and into the private system.

    And, noting the difficulties with this issues, it would also be a good idea to respond in as systematic way as possible to the RC on disabilities, and also the review of the EPBC Act. These fesstering issues somehow need to be put to bed.

    The idea would be to get on the front foot in these policy areas, in order better to respond to headlines such as”is the government going to touch negative gearing?” or “immigration system in chaos after High Court ruling.” Instead, the government could point to a large, comprehensive strategic response in these policy areas.

    Was it someone in the Fraser Government who once suggested to the party room that the best solution to the problems the government was experiencing was to “start governing better”? Anyway, that’s the idea.

  29. A Nevada man with a shotgun, a loaded handgun and ammunition in his vehicle was arrested at a security checkpoint outside Donald Trump’s rally on Saturday night in the Southern California desert, authorities said on Monday (AEDT).
    The suspect, a 49-year-old resident of Las Vegas, was driving a black SUV that was stopped by deputies assigned to the rally in Coachella, east of Los Angeles, the Riverside County Sheriff’s Department said in a statement.
    The man was arrested on suspicion of possessing a loaded firearm and possession of a high-capacity magazine, the department said. “This incident did not impact the safety of former president Trump or attendees of the event,” the statement said.

  30. https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/10/13/newspoll-51-49-to-coalition-open-thread/comment-page-1/#comment-4382156

    It’ll be interesting to see what Redbridge has shortly (today?).

    Will a La Niña 2024/ 2025 summer again[] see a PM swap out?
    Somehow doubt ‘Tanya’s revenge’, there will be nature positivity in a gov I lead, would go down any better, than RGR to the 2013 Australian Federal Election.
    Anything more on inequality (Finland seems to be able to find housing for the homeless, besides pathways to employment)? Making resources or organisations pay their way.
    Medicare Dental?
    Needs-based schools funding?
    Be brave on anti-corruption and integrity, freedom of information, campaign finance reform, war powers …?
    May be after Nbnco, the PM can downgrade the fiancee to a wife, oh the excitement?
    Is the sulking over that 2023 half-hearted referendum over 3% of pre-Cook Australians vs 97% of post-Cook Australians over yet, never mind that it is now independent from the Poms, if not the Yanks, multi-cultural, cosmopolitan?

  31. A change in polls caused by changing preference flows, and posters are already proclaiming the death of the government.

    That said, it might be time for Plibersek, Chalmers et al. to get on the blowers.

  32. Fess: “I’ve been saying for a year now that Albo lost his mojo after the Voice defeat. I did think at one point he’d recover it, but alas he hasn’t. There is nothing for it now, time to go big and govern the hell out of government.”
    —————————————————————————–
    But does he know how to “go big”? He even ran with a small target strategy in relation to the Voice.

    I’ve provided some suggestions above about some things he could go big about. They’d go down ok I reckon: my contempt for the Press Gallery dates back to when I first met some of them and has never really abated. However, rather unexpectedly, I reckon they’re far more interested in detailed policy issues nowadays than they were a few decades back.

    It shouldn’t be hard to engage some of the journos – the likes of Shane Wright and Karen Middleton – in a serious intellectual journey about an issue such as primary care/bulk-billing.

    Unfortunately, the fact that so many of the Albanese cabinet have backgrounds as internal party and/or trade union “fixers” is that they are not really used to doing things in a systematic, considered way. The Hawke Cabinet featured quite a few people who had had proper careers before entering politics and Hawke himself was very much a long-term thinker. I hate being one of those older people who yearn for the good old days, but it’s difficult not to do so.

  33. Green party seems to be doing a pretty good job of destroying their vote. Why vote for the little no when you can vote for the big NO?

  34. VCT Et3e says:
    Monday, October 14, 2024 at 7:47 am

    It’ll be interesting to see what Redbridge has shortly (today?).
    ========================================================
    It looks like info is dripping out via this link on the Kos Samaras x feed.
    Could someone access pls and have a read through.
    Apparently it’s quite a detailed report, but no headline primaries etc.

    Link: https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=DTWEB_WRE170_a_TWT&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailytelegraph.com.au%2Fnews%2Fnational%2Flabor-faces-backlash-over-housing-affordability-crisis-as-concerns-mount-over-falling-standards-of-living%2Fnews-story%2Ff33be1fd153e952c80e04aaa3a926996&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=HIGH-Segment-2-SCORE

  35. I don’t think the Voice referendum campaign helped at all, but the movement of the polling does not at all support the idea that it was the failure of the Voice that turned people off Albo.

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