Category: Victorian Politics

RedBridge Group: 51-49 to Coalition in Victoria

The Coalition pokes its nose in front on two-party preferred, amid conflicting reports on the status of John Pesutto’s leadership.

The Herald Sun reports a RedBridge Group poll of state voting intention in Victoria has the Coalition leading 51-49 on two-party preferred, after the last such poll in late July had it at 50-50. The primary votes are Labor 30% (down one), Coalition 40% (steady), Greens 12% (steady). The poll was conducted from a sample of 1516 from September 26 to October 3, hence slightly before reports of a looming move against Liberal leader John Pesutto – which James Campbell of the Herald Sun reports has “stalled because disgruntled Liberal MPs can’t agree on who should be the potential challenger”.

Resolve Strategic: Labor 27, Coalition 37, Greens 14 in Victoria

Another poll suggesting Labor’s state primary vote in Victoria has a two in front of it, as The Greens fill the upper house vacancy arising from Samantha Ratnam’s federal election bid.

A huge week for state opinion polling continues with Resolve Strategic’s bi-monthly read on state voting intention in Victoria, combining survey results from its last two monthly national polls. As reported in The Age, this records no change for either major party since the June-July result, with Labor on 27%, the Coalition on 37% and the Greens down a point to 14%, suggesting a roughly even split on two-party preferred. There is also next to no change on preferred premier, with Jacinta Allan’s lead over John Pesutto in from 31-28 to 30-29.

The poll also finds 43% support for the Suburban Rail Loop project with 27% opposed. However, 53% favoured the airport-to-city rail link project when it was put to them that “some people have been argued” the money should be used for that instead, with only 16% preferring the Suburban Rail Loop and 19% saying it should be spent on neither. The sample for the poll was 1054.

Also of note from Victoria is the Greens’ choice of a new member of the Legislative Council for Northern Metropolitan region, following party leader Samantha Ratnam’s departure to contest the federal seat of Wills. A party ballot was won last week by Anasina Gray-Barberio, Samoan-born founder of Engage Pasefika, an organisation “committed to advancing Pacific Island Health equity”. Gray-Barberio was chosen from a field of eight that also included Yarra mayor Edward Crossland and former Merri-bek mayor Angelica Panopoulos.

Polls: Resolve Strategic, RedBridge/Accent MRP poll, Wolf & Smith federal and state (open thread)

One regular and two irregular polls, one projecting a Labor minority government, the other offering a rare read on state voting intention across the land.

A lot going on in the world of polling:

Resolve Strategic

Nine Newspapers has the regular monthly Resolve Strategic poll, which has Labor on 28% (down one), the Coalition on 37% (steady), the Greens on 13% (steady) and One Nation on 6% (steady). My estimate of two-party preferred from these results is 50-50, based on preference flows from the 2022 election. Anthony Albanese holds a 35-34 lead as preferred prime minister, after trailing 36-35 last time. Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is up one to 35%, with poor and very poor at up two 53%, while Peter Dutton is respectively steady at 41% and up four to 42%. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1614.

Accent Research/RedBridge Group MRP poll

Accent Research and RedBridge Group have published their second multi-level regression with post-stratification (MRP) poll, in what looks like being a regular quarterly series. This aims for a detailed projected election result by surveying a large national sample, in this case of 5976 surveyed from July 10 to August 27, and using demographic modelling to produce results for each electorate. The full report isn’t in the public domain as far as I can tell but it’s been covered on the ABC’s Insiders and in the Financial Review. UPDATE: Full report here.

The results are not encouraging for Labor: where the previous exercise rated Labor a strong chance of retaining majority government, with a floor of 73 seats and a further nine nine too close to call, they are now down to 64 with 14 too close to call, with the Coalition up from 53 to 59. The median prediction from a range of potential outcomes is that Labor will hold 69 seats, the Coalition 68, the Greens three and others ten. This is based on primary vote projections in line with the recent trend of national polling, with Labor on 32%, the Coalition on 38% and the Greens on 12%.

Five seats are rated as Coalition gains that weren’t last time, Gilmore, Lingiari, Lyons and Aston having moved from too-close-to-call and Paterson going from Labor retain to Coalition gain without passing go. Bruce, Dobell, Hunter, Casey, Tangney, McEwen and Bennelong go from Labor retain to too-close-to-call, while Coalition-held Deakin and Moore are no longer on their endangered list. However, the traffic is not all one way, with Casey in Victoria and Forde in Queensland going from Coalition retain to too-close-to-call. So far as the underlying model is concerned, it is presumably not a coincidence that both seats are on the metropolitan fringes.

The results show a mixed picture for the teals, who are reckoned to have gone backwards in the city, such that Curtin goes from too-close-to-call to Coalition retain and Goldstein goes from teal retain to Liberal gain, but forwards in the country, shifting Wannon from Coalition retain to too-close-to-call while maintaining Cowper as a teal gain. For the Greens, Ryan goes from retained to too-close-to-call while Brisbane does the opposite, with Melbourne and Griffith remaining Greens retains.

Whereas the last assessment was based on 2022 election boundaries, the latest one makes use of the redistribution proposals for New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. Respectively, this takes the teal seat of North Sydney out of contention and moves Hughes from Coalition retain to too-close-to-call; costs Labor Higgins and moves Chisholm from Labor retain to too-close-to-call; and introduces Bullwinkel to the too-close-to-call column.

My routine caveat with MRP is that it handles major parties better than independents and minors, perhaps especially with what by MRP standards is fairly modest sample (a similar exercise before the last election involving some of the same personnel had a sample of 18,923). I am particularly dubious about its projection of a blowout Labor win against the Greens in Wills. There also seems reason to doubt its precision in relation to a demographic wild card like Lingiari.

Wolf & Smith federal and state polling

Also just out is an expansive national poll from a new outfit called Wolf & Smith, a “strategic campaign agency based in Sydney” that appears to involve Jim Reed, principal of Resolve Strategic and alumnus of Liberal Party pollsters Crosby Textor. The poll was conducted from August 6 to 29 through an online panel from a vast sample of 10,239, and includes results federally and for each state government. The federal poll has Labor leading 51-49, from primary votes of Labor 29%, Coalition 36%, Greens 13% and One Nation 6%. At state level:

• The poll joins RedBridge Group and Resolve Strategic in recording weak numbers for the Minns government in New South Wales, showing a 50-50 result on two-party preferred from primary votes of Labor 32%, Coalition 38% and Greens 12%, from a sample of 2047.

• The Coalition leads 52-48 in Victoria from primary votes of Labor 28%, Coalition 40% and Greens 14%, from a sample of 2024, which is likewise broadly in line with recent results from RedBridge Group and Resolve Strategic.

• The Liberal National Party leads 57-43 in Queensland from primary votes of Labor 24%, Coalition 42%, Greens 12%, One Nation 8% and Katter’s Australian Party 3%, from a sample of 1724, which lines up well with the most recent YouGov poll.

• Labor leads 55-45 in Western Australia from primary votes of Labor 37%, Liberal 29%, Nationals 3%, Greens 12% and One Nation 4%, from a sample of 878. Again, this sits well with the most recent other poll from the state, conducted for the Liberal Party by Freshwater Strategy in July from a sample of 1000 and published in The West Australian, which had Labor leading 56-44 from primary votes of Labor 39%, Liberal 33%, Nationals 5% and Greens 12%.

• In the first poll result of any substance from the state since the March 2022 election, Labor leads 60-40 in South Australia from primary votes of Labor 41%, Liberal 28%, Greens 11% and One Nation 5%, from a sample of 856. The Liberal leadership change occurred in the first week of the poll’s three-week survey period.

• A Tasmanian sample of 786 finds both major parties down from the March election result, Liberal from 36.7% to 32% and Labor from 29.0% to 23%, with the Greens steady on 14% (13.9% at the election) and the Jacqui Lambie Network up from 6.7% to 11% – though most of the survey period predated the party’s recent implosion.

And the rest

• The University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre has results of polling conducted by YouGov in June concerning the US alliance and related matters of regional strategy, conducted in conjunction with polling in the US and Japan. Together with an Essential Research poll in July, it points to a softening in attitudes towards Donald Trump, with 26% now rating that Australia should withdraw from the alliance if he wins, down from 37% last year. However, 46% would be “very concerned about the state of US democracy. Twenty per cent of Australian respondents felt US handling of China was too aggressive, compared with only 9% in Japan and 10% in the US, and 40% agreed Australia should send military forces “to help the United States defend Taiwan … if China attacks”, down six from last year, with 32% disagreeing, up ten. Respondents in all three countries were asked if it were “a good idea for Australia to have nuclear-powered submarines”: 51% of Australians agreed while 19% disagreed, compared with 35% and 16% of Americans daring to venture an opinion one way or the other. The survey was conducted from June 17 to 25, from sample of a little over 1000 in each country.

• JWS Research has the results of its latest quarterly True Issues survey on issue salience. Cost of living remains by far the issue most frequently invoked as being among the “most important issues the Australian government should focus on”, despite a six-point drop since May. The survey also finds a net minus 22 rating for direction of the national economy, down two on May and the equal worst result going back to the series’ inception in 2013.

RedBridge Group: 50-50 in Victoria

More evidence of declining support for state Labor in Victoria; a parliamentary inquiry recommends abolishing group voting tickets for the upper house, among many other things; and teal candidates threaten a legal challenge against campaign finance laws.

The Herald Sun reports a RedBridge Group poll of Victorian state voting intention has Labor and the Coalition tied on two-party preferred, after the last such poll in June had Labor ahead 55-45. The primary votes are Labor 31% (down four), Coalition 40% (up two) and Greens 12% (down two). The poll was conducted July 23 to August 1 from a sample of 1514. (UPDATE: Full report here).

Two further items of Victorian state electoral news:

• The parliament’s Electoral Matters Committee has produced a report into the 2022 election that makes particularly interesting reading after an election conducted amid an unusually febrile atmosphere. It offers a remarkably thorough program of recommendations, including abolishing group voting tickets for the Legislative Council, as has been done everywhere else; addressing the increasing in inappropriate behaviour at voting centres; introducing truth-in-advertising laws; and tightening the election timeline so that nominations close earlier, early voting begins later, and the electoral roll is closed on the day the writs are issued (which the High Court disallowed when the Howard government tried it, but that was without Victoria’s scheme of election day enrolment). The report also recommends further inquiries into transferring certain responsibilities of the VEC, such as enforcing electoral law, to other bodies; reforming the Legislative Council system to counter-balance the likely impact of abolishing group voting tickets on small party representation; and modernising the Electoral Act through a “holistic review”.

• Josh Gordon of The Age reports unsuccessful teal candidate from the November 2022 election are threatening a High Court challenge against the government’s campaign finance laws, arguing they advantaged established parties and violated the implied constitutional right to political communication. Sophie Torney, Melissa Lowe, Nomi Kaltmann and Kate Lardner, who were unsuccessful in their respective bids for Kew, Hawthorn, Caulfield and Mornington, have alerted the government to concerns over a “nominated entity exception” to donations caps, allowing Labor to receive $3.1 million from its Labor Services and Holdings entity and the Liberals to receive $2.5 million from its Cormack Foundation. Donations from entities set up after 2018 were capped at $4320 over the course of a four-year parliamentary term.

Resolve Strategic: Labor 27, Coalition 37, Greens 15 in Victoria

Victorian Labor continues to struggle in the latest bi-monthly state poll, which finds support for its housing targets but strong opposition for raising the age of criminal responsibility.

The Age reports Resolve Strategic’s bi-monthly read on Victorian state voting intention finds no respite for Labor after a plunge last time, their primary vote down a point to 27% with the Coalition steady on 37% and the Greens up two to 15%, suggesting a two-party preferred result of around 50-50. Jacinta Allan’s lead over John Pesutto as preferred premier has narrowed from 31-26 to 31-28. Further questions find 57% supporting and 22% opposing the government’s housing targets and 28% supporting and 57% opposing raising the age of criminal responsibility. The poll combines results from Resolve Strategic’s last two monthly polls, with a sample of 1000.

YouGov: 50-50 (open thread)

Plus new Victorian and Queensland state polls, and an update on Liberal ructions ensuing from proposed new federal boundaries for Victoria.

The three-weekly YouGov federal poll records little change on last time, with two-party preferred steady at 50-50 from primary votes of Labor 30% (steady), Coalition 38% (steady), Greens 14% (up one) and One Nation 8% (steady). Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings are also unchanged at 41% approval and 53% disapproval, but Peter Dutton is down four on approval to 38% and up three on disapproval to 51%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 47-36, out from 44-37. The poll also finds an 84-16 split in favour of the proposition that workers have a right to strike for better wages and job security. It was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 1500.

There are also two state voting intention results from RedBridge Group, both combining two waves of polling in February and May:

• As reported in the Herald Sun, a poll for Victoria credits Labor with lead of 55-45, out from 54-46 in the last such poll in March, contrasting with the recent bi-monthly Resolve Strategic result which suggested the Coalition had moved into the lead. The primary votes are Labor 35% (down one), Coalition 38% (steady) and Greens 14% (up four). Kevin Bonham on Twitter notes that these primary votes suggest a 53-47 result based on a crude application of flows from the last election, but pollster Kos Samaras says the cumulative “others” pool has moved leftwards because “most of the right-wing minor party votes have shifted to the Coalition”. A full accounting of the results from the pollster should be along shortly. (UPDATE: The pollster has published the full result together with a full account of its “others” pool).

• The second poll such poll is for Queensland, and it maintains Labor’s run of diabolical polling there ahead of an election in October. The Liberal National Party is credited with a two-party lead of 57-43 from primary votes of Labor 28%, LNP 47% and Greens 12%. The poll has a sample of 880, and is somewhat at odds with a union-commissioned uComms polling provided last week to The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column, conducted on May 14 from a sample of 2400, which found Labor had gone from 26.9% to 30.0% from an earlier poll April, while the LNP had gone from 35.1% to 33.7%, the Greens from 13.0% to 10.9% and One Nation from 10.0% to 5.2%, with undecided down from 16% to 10%.

Latest news related to the various federal redistributions in progress, following last week’s publication of draft boundaries for Victoria and Western Australia:

• The Australian Electoral Commission has announced the proposed new federal boundaries for New South Wales, which will involve the abolition of one of the state’s 47 seats, will be published “around lunchtime” on Friday.

• Suggestions the redistribution proposal for Victoria may have strengthened the Liberals in Kooyong prompted a flurry of speculation concerning a comeback by Josh Frydenberg, with Josh Butler of The Guardian reporting on divided opinions within the party. Seemingly the only one to go on the record was soon-to-retire Queensland member Karen Andrews, who spoke approvingly of the idea, which would potentially have been helpful to a Frydenberg comeback given one of the chief obstacles is the optics involved in deposing an already preselected female candidate, Amelia Hamer. Antony Green was initially invoked as having calculated the seat had been strengthened for the Liberals, which many had taken as read given blue-ribbon Toorak was part of the area to be gained from abolished Higgins, but he shortly clarified it was not possible to infer independent member Monique Ryan’s level of support in areas where she was not on the ballot paper in 2022. The matter was shortly resolved in any case when Frydenberg declared his support for Hamer. Aaron Patrick of the Financial Review reported Frydenberg had commissioned Freshwater Strategy to poll the seat “several times”, with party sources saying the results “didn’t indicate he’d win”.

• The proposed abolition of Higgins has prompted suggestions defeated former Liberal member Katie Allen, who had again been preselected for the seat, will instead contest Chisholm, despite the party already having a candidate for that seat in Monash councillor Theo Zographos. Josh Ferguson of The Australian reports the party will challenge the abolition of Higgins in its submission in response to the proposed new boundaries. The report further says a political foundation established by the seat’s former member, Peter Costello, to help fund campaigning in the seat “is being eyed by Liberal bean counters to help stave off a feared collapse in fundraising capacity for the party”. A Liberal source is quoted saying the fund was established to ensure the money “was not ultimately seized by a factional rival”.

Resolve Strategic: Labor 28, Coalition 37, Greens 13 in Victoria

A poll conducted partly before the recent state budget and partly after gives Victorian Labor its worst result in many a long year.

The Age yesterday reported the bi-monthly Victorian state poll from Resolve Strategic, compiled from responses from the pollster’s last two national polls, showing a pronounced decline in the standing of the third-term Labor government. Its primary vote was down five points on the February-March poll to 28%, with the Coalition up two to 37% and the Greens steady on 13%. Much of the Labor decline was absorbed by a generic “independent” category, which bounces four points to 16%, though many of those choosing it may find themselves lacking a viable independent option at an actual election. The “others” category is down a point to 6%. Resolve Strategic does not provide two-party preferred results, and an independent score around triple that recorded in 2022 makes applying preference flows from the last election a dubious endeavour. Nonetheless, I would conservatively suggest that these numbers point to a 52-48 lead for the Coalition.

A preferred premier question finds Jacinta Allan with a lead over a seemingly beleaguered John Pesutto of 31-26, in from 34-25 last time. The poll combines 555 responses from April 17 to 21 with 550 from May 15 to 19 – those in the latter group were asked further questions about the state budget, which was brought down on May 7. Twenty-six per cent of these respondents rated that Tim Pallas was doing a good job as Treasurer compared with 38% for poor. Following a question that explained the scale of the government’s net debt, 60% expressed a preference for reducing debt by cutting spending compared with 7% for doing so by raising taxes and 14% for maintaining the current trajectory. Fifty-two per cent rated that the budget had broken promises compared with 32% for the alternative that its measures represented “practical change to suit the times and financial position”, though the question related facts that would have inclined the neutral observer to the former point of view.

RedBridge Group: 54-46 to Labor in Victoria

A new finds the Victorian Labor government slipping a little, but still well on top.

The Herald-Sun relates that a RedBridge Group poll of state voting intention in Victoria has Labor leading 54-46, in from 55.9-44.1 at the last such poll in December, from primary votes of Labor 36% (down one), Coalition 38% (up two) and Greens 10% (down three). The poll was conducted March 14 to 20 from a sample of 1559. A full report will presumably be along shortly featuring detailed demographic breakdowns. We are also likely to get later this week the regular bi-monthly Resolve Strategic result featuring state voting intention numbers combined from its latest poll and the one conducted a month ago.

UPDATE (28/3): As foreshadowed above, The Age today has the bi-monthly Resolve Strategic result, and it concurs with RedBridge Group in finding the Coalition moving into a lead on the primary vote, with Labor down two from December to 33%, the Coalition up four to 35%, the Greens up two to 13% and generic independents down two to 12%. Where last time I calculated Labor’s two-party lead approaching 57-43, now I have it at around 53.5-46.5. Jacinta Allan’s lead over John Pesutto on preferred premier has narrowed from 34-22 to 34-25. The two field work periods for the polling were February 21 to 24 and March 21 to 24 – the sample size is not disclosed, but would have been around 1000.

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