The Poll Bludger

At the close of last night’s count Labor were ahead in 64 seats, the Nationals in 14, Liberal in six, One Nation in one and independents in four. It is universally anticipated that postal votes and the remaining undeclared booth will see off Labor’s eight vote lead in Charters Towers. The National Party have also won Burdekin (4.7 per cent) and Burnett (2.9 per cent) from Labor and Lockyer (12.3 per cent) from One Nation. However, Keppel has been lost to the Labor Party (4.2 per cent).

The Liberal Party has won two seats on the Gold Coast, Currumbin (3.4 per cent) from Labor and Surfers Paradise (15.0 per cent) from an independent. Doubt still remains over Labor’s hold on the Brisbane seats of Clayfield and Indooroopilly, although their 549-vote (1.6 per cent) lead in the latter will presumably be enough. In Clayfield however just 233 votes (0.6 per cent) separate incumbent member and former Play School presenter Liddy Clark from Liberal challenger Sally Hannah. The Liberals may yet lose their Sunshine Coast seat of Caloundra, where they lead by 370 votes (0.9 per cent).

Labor then will emerge with between 62 and 64 seats, a respectable distance from the Poll Bludger’s final projection of 65. The Nationals have done one better than I expected in winning 15 seats while the Liberals have won between four and six (I tipped five). Independents Elisa Roberts (Gympie), Peter Wellington (Nicklin), Liz Cunningham (Gladstone) and Chris Foley (Maryborough) were re-elected but Lex Bell lost Surfers Paradise, while One Nation held Tablelands but lost Lockyer – all of which was as I had anticipated.

In terms of Labor’s majority I would appear not to have done quite as well as Peter Brent at Mumble or Charles Richardson at Crikey (not available online), who tipped Labor to win 63 and 64 seats respectively. The content of our judgement is another matter, as indicated by the fact that I got one seat closer to the mark by wrongly (so it would seem) deciding on Friday that Labor would not hold Clayfield after all. This was one of six seats I got wrong, the others being Burdekin, Burnett, Charters Towers, Currumbin and Toowoomba North. The latter was my worst call, with Labor 7.6 per cent ahead at the close of polls. My Burdekin judgement marked a grave under-estimation of the sugar industry effect (in this electorate at least), with the Nationals leading by 4.7 per cent. Of the remainder, Currumbin surprised everybody, while Clayfield and Charters Towers were close enough that I can forgive myself. Burnett could have been better judged, but the Nationals’ 2.9 per cent lead is almost within an acceptable margin for error for state election predictions (not federal though).

Peter Brent may be given latitude as he made his prediction early in the campaign and wasn’t taking it as seriously, offering no comment on the fate of One Nation or independents. He wrongly picked Noosa, Burleigh and Kawana as Coalition gains, missing Burdekin, Burnett and Currumbin, but correctly picked Charters Towers as a Nationals gain (unlike the Poll Bludger) and Labor’s win in Keppel.

Charles Richardson was cleverer than me in that he reached his conclusion by picking six seats as possible Labor losses and calculating they would lose half of them – Burdekin, Burnett, Charters Towers, Burleigh and Thuringowa to the Nationals, and Mount Coot-tha to the Greens. As far as it goes this was perfectly correct, but the seats Labor retained here were held by margins of 5.1, 8.3 and 11.2 per cent. He also tipped the Liberals to win the same three seats as last time, thereby missing Currumbin and their easy win in Surfers Paradise, and wrongly predicted a One Nation wipeout, which proved 16.9 per cent off the mark in Tablelands. This makes for three full errors and three half-errors, so while I might claim to be ahead on percentage, I have to concede it to Richardson on points.

To the Poll Bludger’s knowledge, Malcolm Mackerras made no effort to retract his prediction of January 14 that Labor would win by 15 seats, though he would surely have known many of his calls were untenable before yesterday.

Just kidding. Two hours out from the closure of polls I thought it worth noting that the Sunshine Coast Daily today carries "pre-poll booth exit polls" of 100 respondents each for five electorates on its turf, suggesting Labor-held Kawana and Liberal-held Caloundra will change hands assuming preferences do the job in the former (Labor’s Chris Cummins led Liberal Harry Burnett 43 per cent to 42). In Caloundra Labor supposedly leads 49-35. Other figures had Labor ahead in Noosa and an impressive 61 per cent supporting National Party MP Fiona Simpson in Maroochydore.

Newspoll hath spoken. Lest we forget, this organisation showed what it was worth at the last Queensland election with a final survey that nailed Labor’s score to within 0.1 per cent and was only 1 per cent out for each of the Coalition parties. With this record any sensible observer would do well to regard the following as holy writ: Labor on 50 per cent, up 1 per cent on last election, versus the Coalition on 33 per cent, up 5 per cent. Labor are down from 58 per cent to 55 per cent in Brisbane but up from 42 to 46 per cent in the rest of Queensland.

The Australian’s Greg Roberts notes that the latter figure "contradicts private party polling, which indicated issues such as sugar industry reform were hurting Labor in the regions". To this I would point out that "Brisbane" presumably does not include the Gold and Sunshine coasts and that the "regional" figure has been weighted upward by what is likely to be a very strong Labor performance in these areas. If this is so the Nationals will have reason to be nervous about Maroochydore and Beaudesert, and the Liberals will be looking dicey in Caloundra.

Against that, the regional figure could be hiding pockets of weaker Labor performance in seats including Burnett, Charters Towers, Toowoomba North, Thuringowa and Burdekin. To the latter list can be added Barron River if for no other reason than that Greg Roberts in the Courier Mail and Charles Richardson (see below) would have it there – again, they must know something I don’t. Against that is the finding, again consistent with trends in other polls, that Labor faces a 3 per cent dip in Brisbane. This makes things very interesting for Clayfield and Indooroopilly (maybe even Aspley), and has inspired the Poll Bludger to reverse his judgement that Labor will hold the former.

Crikey today provided an assessment from Melbourne-based election watcher Charles Richardson, whose reading of the Queensland situation is broadly in line with the Poll Bludger’s except that he takes an ever dimmer view of the Liberal Party’s prospects. Only Clayfield and Barron River are nominated as potential Liberal gains, so no Noosa, Kawana or Indooroopilly. Richardson may know something the Poll Bludger doesn’t with regard to Barron River, but the Liberal candidate ran a distant third in 2001 and most observers would be surprised if this fell before the others. More importantly, Richardson does not share what may be a lazy assumption of the Poll Bludger’s that the Liberals can’t possibly lose any of their existing three seats, and rightly notes that anything could happen in light of Joan Sheldon’s departure from Caloundra.

He does not however consider Surfers Paradise worth a mention, which brings me to the excellent series of electorate-level polls conducted throughout the campaign by the Gold Coast Bulletin. Earlier posts related results for Gaven (click here) and Broadwater (click here) and the Poll Bludger has today been able to hunt down the other three. The Surfers Paradise results are even worse for incumbent independent Lex Bell than I had realised, having him a distant third (on 17 per cent) behind Liberal John-Paul Langbroek (38 per cent) and Labor’s David Parrish (35 per cent). In Burleigh, Labor’s Christine Smith, elected on a margin of 1.8 per cent, was sitting pretty on 41 per cent against 25 per cent for the Nationals’ Max Duncan, with Greens and One Nation on 7 and 3 per cent respectively. And in long-forgotten Currumbin, Merri Rose led her Liberal challenger 41 to 30 per cent. By the way, these high primary vote figures were not achieved by distributing the undecided vote – this was recorded in the results at an impressively low 6, 21 and 16 per cent respectively, in stark contrast to the efforts of other regional newspapers during the campaign.

How-to-vote cards will count for less than ever at this election, but the small number of exceptions the major parties have made to their just-one-vote strategy are potentially of interest. The Coalition are recommending a second preference to independents Liz Cunningham (incumbent) in Gladstone and David Moyle (challenger) in Thuringowa, both of which make sound tactical sense in terms of thwarting Labor. Labor are recommending second preferences only to Nicklin MP Peter Wellington and, curiously, independent candidate Ruth Spencer in Warrego.

The Courier Mail today provides the final TNS Global poll for the campaign (Newspoll presumably to follow tomorrow) and it has fortified the Poll Bludger in most of his earlier convictions. Once again the results are frustratingly incomplete – we are given a statewide two-party preferred split of 58-42 and told that on the Gold and Sunshine Coasts, Labor’s vote has risen during the campaign by 8 per cent to 45 while the Liberals have fallen 7 per cent to 14. Thus have Labor’s odds firmed in Noosa, Burleigh, Broadwater and Kawana. Liberal factional warlords apparently agree with this assessment as they are reportedly preparing to heap all the blame for the outcome on poor old Bob Quinn. In fact the results are bad enough to bring into contention the Gold Coast hinterland seat of Beaudesert, held by National Party stalwart Kev Lingard with a margin of 2 per cent.

There are a couple of other seats being mentioned which didn’t enter the Poll Bludger’s earlier calculations. The Courier Mail yesterday reported that Labor is "creating a scare" in the outback seat of Warrego, but given that their 16.3 per cent vote last time was presumably a career-best performance it’s hard to see how this is possible. Also out of left field, there is some talk that the gap in quality between the candidates on offer in Ipswich West may make this a freak Liberal gain from Labor.

On firmer ground, Peter Krumins (see the post below) has made the Poll Bludger see reason with regard to a third seat, the conclusion being that One Nation’s Rosa Lee Long will indeed be re-elected in Tablelands. Here the combined 2001 vote for One Nation and their former MP-turned-independent Shaun Nelson was 51 per cent compared with 25 per cent for Labor and only 16 per cent for the Nationals. With only three candidates in the field this time, it’s very difficult to distribute the available votes in a way that has a major party candidate winning. So with one day to go, the Poll Bludger’s projected outcome is as follows: Labor 66, Nationals 14, Liberal 4, independents 4, One Nation 1.

The Poll Bludger has received outstanding intelligence from Queensland observer Peter Krumins which has prompted what will no doubt be the first of many second thoughts about my predictions for the Queensland election outcome. Krumins has also submitted his observations to Peter Brent at Mumble, where they may be read in full.

Firstly, I recognise now that I was unduly influenced by the Mackerras pendulum in choosing Charters Towers as one to fall to the Nationals. Krumins notes that this was always a tough seat for the Nationals to hold during the 1990s – a 3.7 per cent margin in 1998, and just 0.4 per cent in 1992. Furthermore, Labor’s result relative to other seats in the neighbourhood was dampened by a smaller field of candidates. So scratch that one and bump Labor back up to 66 seats.

Secondly, I have dropped my prediction that the National Party’s Christian Rowan will win Gympie from independent Elisa Roberts. With a field of seven candidates, five of what-may-be-called-the-right and only two of what-may-be-called-the-left (Labor and the Greens), Labor’s Rae Gate can expect to easily rise above the pack in terms of the primary vote. Whether she gets overhauled on preferences most likely depends on who ends up in second place. Roberts would probably gather enough preferences from supporters of other candidates to overhaul Gate; Rowan would probably not, in which case Labor would secure a once-unthinkable victory.

A guide to helping us towards a conclusion here, although not a very reliable one, comes from the good people at the Gympie Times, who have evidently not been reading the Poll Bludger too carefully. Today they published a self-conducted poll of 100 respondents and it mirrored the efforts of the AEC Group/Townsville Bulletin in recording a 41 per cent undecided rating, though it should be noted here that the Gympie Times doesn’t do this for a living. This was announced with the front page headline, "Poll shock: 40% voters undecided". Those of you who committed yesterday’s blog entry to memory (see paragraph four) will no doubt find this terribly amusing. Out of the remainder, support was at 22 per cent (which out of a sample of 100 is … let me grab my calculator here … 22!) for Labor, 17 per cent for Roberts, 13 per cent for the Nationals, 3 per cent for the Greens, and 2 per cent each for One Nation and independent candidate Wayne Sachs. Not much to go on, but some help at least in edging me towards a conclusion that this is a finely-poised race between Roberts and Gate, with Rowan unlikely to be in the hunt.

While the Poll Bludger leans towards a Roberts victory for the time being, there is at least the possibility of Sunday morning newspaper headlines along the lines of "Poll shock: Beattie’s increased majority".

The last few days have produced a flurry of localised opinion polling, much of it dubious but all of it pointing so firmly in the same direction that only one conclusion is possible – the Coalition faces another catastrophe of biblical proportions this Saturday. By failing to put themselves within reach of victory next time, they will face a Labor Party entrenched in power until at least 2010. Labor will then have ruled in Queensland for 19 out of the previous 21 years, and it will be reasonable to speak of a third era of Queensland politics distinct from Labor’s dominance pre-1957 and the subsequent 32 years of National/Country Party rule. Just as the Labor Split initiated the first changeover, so did the Pauline Hanson phenomenon cement the second.

TNS Global’s 700-sample polls for the Courier Mail have earned derision in some quarters, but this time they have upped the ante to 1200 and focused on four well-chosen electorates. Unfortunately they have rather muffed it by producing only two-party preferred results. These have Labor winning Keppel from the Nationals with 55 per cent, holding Noosa with an astounding 17 per cent swing and achieving a more believeable but still remarkable 5 per cent swing to hold the formerly blue-ribbon Brisbane seat of Indooroopilly. The fly in the ointment here is the result showing the Liberals’ hold on Moggill will firm to the tune of 10 per cent. The first thing you can do with these figures is knock 10 per cent off Labor’s score in Noosa and Indooroopilly to make way for the Greens, without giving any of it back in preferences (Beattie will win anyway, Greens voters will shrug, so why waste the earth mother’s precious pencil lead?). Then send a 6 per cent margin for error Labor’s way in Indooroopilly and Liberal’s in Noosa and you’ll get a 1 per cent win in Labor in each, which is about where I would have it.

The Gold Coast Bulletin has apparently been conducting polling in each of the electorates on its turf but the Poll Bludger only has hard results from Gaven (noted here) and Broadwater, held by Labor on a margin of 2.4 per cent. There sitting member Peta-Kaye Croft led National Party candidate Margaret Grummitt by 52 to 31 per cent. Apparently results in neighbouring electorates have been similar, the one ray of Coalition sunshine being Surfers Paradise, where Liberal candidate John Paul Langbroek (brother of Kate from The Panel) was tipped to unseat independent Lex Bell.

The Townsville Bulletin, through something called the AEC Group, ran an exasperating poll for Thuringowa and Burdekin producing respective "undecided" ratings of 46.5 and 31.5 per cent, a fact which the paper thought worth a front-page banner headline. It should have read, "poll shock – clueless research company neglects to ask respondents who they lean towards if undecided&quot. Out of the few voters they managed to squeeze an answer from, only a small margin favoured Labor’s Craig Wallace in Thuringowa, with the Nationals’ Sandra Chesney and independent David Moyle both in the hunt. In Burdekin, widely tipped as a focal point of the mooted sugar backlash, Labor’s Steve Rodgers led his National Party opponent 40 votes to 12, with Knuth and Poletto ruling each other out by splitting 22 votes between them.

What to make of all that then? To the Poll Bludger one thing at least is clear – never again will the National Party win a seat on the Gold Coast. Accordingly Labor will hold its two most marginal seats in the area, Burleigh and Broadwater. They are more likely to lose Gaven and Mudgeeraba, both contested by the Liberals, but here Labor have more fat on their existing margins. Labor will have a harder time against Liberal opponents in the two marginal Sunshine Coast seats of Noosa and Kawana, but such is the strength of Labor polling that my current judgement is that these too will be held.

In each of the seats just mentioned Labor confronts a difficulty that did not face them at the last election, a challenge from the Greens. Such is not the case in the main Brisbane marginals Clayfield and Indooroopilly, which the Greens did contest last time. While it may be inferred from the polling that the Coalition will not do quite so badly in the Brisbane suburbs as in the Gold and Sunshine coasts, I still expect Labor to hold on here.

Away from the south-east corner the situation, as always, is more volatile and less predictable. Here the National Party can win seats purely as a result of the inevitable decline in support for One Nation, which will yield more primary votes and fewer exhausted minor party preferences than was the case in 2001. For this reason I expect them to pick up Toowoomba North and Charters Towers. I had spent the campaign imagining the same would be true of Burdekin but my current judgement is that vote-splitting between the Nationals, One Nation and Bob Katter-endorsed former One Nation MP Jeff Knuth will again win the seat for Labor.

Such is the parlous state of the Coalition that we mustn’t rule out the possibility of yet more seats falling to Labor, and the Poll Bludger has summoned enough courage to predict that the loss of Vince Lester’s personal vote will indeed cost them the seat of Keppel. If things really are going as badly on the Sunshine Coast as previously asserted then Fiona Simpson could well struggle to hold Maroochydore, but my gut instinct is that her high profile will see her through.

Time’s up for One Nation – I predict the National Party will recover Lockyer from Bill Flynn and Tablelands from Rosa Lee Long, but a Labor win in either is not out of the question. I also predict One Nation-turned-independent MP Elisa Roberts will lose Gympie to the National Party’s Christian Rowan. However, the other One Nationer-turned-independent, Dorothy Pratt, will hold on in Nanango. Independent Peter Wellington will win easily in Nicklin, as will Chris Foley in Maryborough; Liz Cunningham’s hold on Gladstone is less secure but I am inclined to think she will again get over the line. My money is on the Liberal Party winning Surfers Paradise off Lex Bell. Darling Downs is a potentially interesting case as Ray Hopper was elected as an independent but has since joined the National Party, but he lacks strong opposition and should face no trouble.

Potential independent newcomers include two of the five Katter-endorsed candidates, David Moyle in Thuringowa (held by retiring Labor member Anita Phillips) and Andrew Lancini in Hinchinbrook (held by Marc Rowell for the National Party). I am not tipping them to win but these are the sorts of surprises that can and do occur in state elections. However I do not expect the Greens to achieve hoped-for victories in the safe Labor seats of Mount Coot-tha and South Brisbane.

To summarise then – a status quo result may be expected in Brisbane, where Labor currently holds 49 out of 50 seats. Labor will if anything pick up swings, though perhaps not seats, on the Gold and Sunshine coasts. In the regions, the National Party will win two seats from Labor and lose one, and should pick up two seats from One Nation and one from an independent. Final score: Labor 65 (down one), Nationals 16 (up four on the election and three on the current parliament), Liberal 4 (up one), independents four (there are four independents in the current parliament plus two One Nation).

All of these predictions and a new round of campaign updates are now available at the Poll Bludger’s new-look Queensland election guide.

Dan Van Blarcom may consider himself the inaugural recipient of the Poll Bludger Kiss of Death. Apparently if this site describes you as "promising" (see somewhere in the middle of this lengthy posting) that means you can expect the entire nation to be shown a photo of you wearing a swastika armband before the week is through. For such has been the fate of the now-disendorsed National Party candidate for Whitsunday, who in my defence certainly boasted a promising CV – respected commodore of the local yacht club, trusted announcer of boating reports on local radio. Unfortunately it has now emerged that self-appointed fuhrer of the Queensland Nazi Party (admittedly at the age of 16) and member of the Freedom Vigilantes and the League of Rights had been tactfully omitted. Van Blarcom maintains he was working as an undercover agent, but details of this claim are sketchy enough that the National Party has been unable to accept it.

Having established that unpromising precedent, the Poll Bludger will devote the final weekend of the campaign to putting his crystal balls on the line and calling the result seat-by-seat. This will require a lengthy process involving cutting-edge techniques of data collation and analysis, computerised statistical modelling based on breakthrough artificial intelligence technology, and the tossing of a few coins. This and a new round of campaign updates will be added to the Queensland election guide either tomorrow or Monday, depending on how I go.