TASMANIAN ELECTION 2018

Denison


ELECTORATE MAP
PARTY VOTE AT 2014 ELECTION
# % Quotas Swing
LIBERAL 24,485 37.2% 2.23 +7.4%
Elise Archer* 6,701 10.2% 0.61 +5.5%
Deborah de Williams 1,052 1.6% 0.10
Matthew Groom* 13,829 21.0% 1.26 +6.0%
ReneĢ Kling 823 1.3% 0.08
Robert Mallett 2,080 3.2% 0.19
LABOR 21,611 32.9% 1.97 -3.4%
Julian Amos 1,917 2.9% 0.17
Scott Bacon* 14,469 22.0% 1.32 +10.5%
Sharon Carnes 1,482 2.3% 0.14
Alphonese Mulumba 1,587 2.4% 0.14
Madeleine Ogilvie* 2,156 3.3% 0.20 +2.3%
GREENS 13,552 20.6% 1.24 -4.3%
Penelope Ann 934 1.4% 0.09 +0.1%
Philip Cocker 695 1.1% 0.06
Bill Harvey 1,614 2.5% 0.15
Cassy O'Connor* 9,694 14.7% 0.88 -1.5%
Alan Whykes 615 0.9% 0.06
Palmer United 2,020 3.1% 0.18
Australian Christians 1,988 3.0% 0.18
Socialist Alliance 300 0.5% 0.03
Independents 1,804 2.7% 0.16
HISTORICAL VOTE RESULTS
HISTORICAL SEAT RESULTS
CANDIDATES
T4T - Tasmanians 4 Tasmania
ALAN BARNETT
ROB NEWITT
Shooters Fishers Farmers
LORRAINE BENNETT
Labor
SCOTT BACON
TIM COX
ELLA HADDAD
MADELEINE OGILVIE
ZELINDA SHERLOCK
Greens
AARON BENHAM
HELEN BURNETT
MEL FITZPATRICK
ROSE KOKKORIS
CASSY O'CONNOR
Liberal
ELISE ARCHER
SIMON BEHRAKIS
SUE HICKEY
KRISTY JOHNSON
DEAN YOUNG

Denison encompasses central Hobart and the western shore of the Derwent River, with the eastern shore suburbs and southern outskirts township of Kingston accommodated by Franklin. It has developed a pronounced green-left tendency over recent decades, returning independent Andrew Wilkie to the federal seat since 2010, and providing the Greens with one safe seat in the state lower house, and occasionally giving them hopes for two. It is correspondingly weak for the Liberals, who ceased to be competitive federally after Michael Hodgman, the father of the current Premier, lost the seat after a 12-year tenure in 1987.

The Greens presence — first as “Green independents”, later as a formal party — began when Bob Brown won a countback to succeed Norm Sanders of the Australian Democrats in January 1983, and the party has held one Denison seat ever since. The remaining seats have split evenly between Labor and Liberal, except when Labor gained three and reduced the Liberals to one in 2002 and 2006. The earlier of these occasions saw Liberal leader Bob Cheek lose his seat, with the sole Liberal seat going to the veteran Michael Hodgman.

The massive statewide move to the Liberals across the 2010 and 2014 elections was relatively subdued in Denison, with the Liberals recording their lowest primary vote swings in the electorate on both occasions. The Liberals nonetheless returned to a more typical position of parity with Labor at the 2010 election, resulting in the defeat of Labor's Lisa Singh, later to return as a Senator. The 10.6% drop in the Labor vote in 2010 was mostly taken up by Andrew Wilkie, who polled 8.4% as an independent without biting into the Greens vote, and came within 315 votes of winning a seat at the expense of the second Liberal. Wilkie's time would come later in the year, when he achieved the first of what are now three victories in the federal seat.

Liberal candidates

ELISE ARCHER


SIMON BEHRAKIS


SUE HICKEY


KRISTY JOHNSON


DEAN YOUNG

Elise Archer is a former lawyer and Hobart alderman who, together with Matthew Groom, was one of two Liberals elected from a fresh slate at the 2010 election, following the retirement of Michael Hodgman, the only Liberal winner in 2002 and 2006. Archer's primary vote in 2010 was slightly lower than that of another Liberal candidate, Richard Lowrie, but she pulled ahead of him on preferences and ultimately prevailed over Andrew Wilkie by 315 votes. She became the parliament's first woman Speaker after the 2014 election, but was reportedly dissatisfied with her failure to land a place in cabinet. This was rectified when Groom stood aside in September 2017, and she has since served in the environment, justice, corrections and arts portfolios.

The highest profile of the new candidates is Sue Hickey, who has been Lord Mayor of Hobart since 2014 and a councillor since 2011, and is the founder of the marketing business Slick Promotions. Hickey has a history with Elise Archer, the two having been involved in what The Australian described as a “heated arm-waving confrontation” at a festival in late 2009, which resulted in Will Hodgman ordering Archer to apologise. At issue was Hickey's public comment that there were too many lawyers in parliament.

The remining Liberal candidates are Simon Behrakis, variously identified as an economist and manager at Salamanca Fresh; Kristy Johnson, owner-manager of two Hobart gym businesses (not to be confused with Kristie Johnston, former mayor of the troubled Glenorchy council); and Dean Young, a Glenorchy newsagent.

Labor candidates

SCOTT BACON


TIM COX


ELLA HADDAD


MADELEINE OGILVIE


ZELINDA SHERLOCK

The son of the late former Premier Jim Bacon, Scott Bacon has been a formidable vote-winner since entering politics in 2010. He first won election at the expense of Lisa Singh, whose own considerable electoral appeal was demonstrated at the federal election in 2016, when she received enough below-the-line votes to win a seat ahead of a higher-placed candidate on the Labor ticket. In 2014 he was re-elected with 22.0% of the vote, compared with 3.3% for his nearest Labor rival. A member of the Right, he was an economist and adviser to David Llewellyn before entering parliament, and a cabinet minister in the tourism, finance and veterans affairs portfolios from May 2011 until the March 2014 election defeat.

With Bacon dominating the Labor vote in 2014, Madeleine Ogilvie won the party's second seat after receiving slightly more of the scraps than the three other newcomers on the ticket. Despite her progressive credentials as a former human rights lawyer and refugee advocate, Ogilvie is a Catholic who has taken conservative positions in parliament on euthanasia and same-sex marriage. She roused particular ire among party members when she voted against a Greens motion in support of the latter in December 2015. She is one of only two Labor members aligned with the Right, together with David Llewellyn, who is retiring at the election.

The highest profile of Labor's new candidates is Tim Cox, who was an ABC Radio presenter locally for nearly two decades until he moved to Queensland in 2010, and has more recently been a conference facilitator. The other Labor candidates are Ella Haddad, a manager at the Department of Health and Human Services, and Zelinda Sherlock, a doctoral student at the University of Tasmania.

Greens candidates

AARON BENHAM


HELEN BURNET


MEL FITZPATRICK


ROSE KOKKORIS


CASSY O'CONNOR

Greens leader Cassy O'Connor has held her seat in Denison since 2008, when she succeeded outgoing leader Peg Putt. O'Connor had previously worked as an adviser to Duncan Kerr, the federal Labor member for Denison. O'Connor became one of two Greens members to enter the ministry after the 2010 election under the terms of the Greens' alliance with Labor, first as cabinet secretary and then as Minister for Human Services and Community Development after November 2010. This arrangement came to an end when Lara Giddings ended the alliance in January 2014. She emerged as the leader of the Greens' three-member parliamentary contingent following the resignation of Kim Booth in June 2015.

Joining O'Connor on the Greens ticket are Helen Burnet, a Hobart alderman and former deputy mayor who has run for the Greens on a number of previous occasions; Mel Fitzpatrick, an Antarctic climate scientist; Aaron Benham, an honours student in environmental science at the University of Tasmania; and Rose Kokkoris, a North Hobart café owner.